A blog and book by Rick Baker about the Mysterious Disappearance of the McStay family on February 4, 2010. In the past three years, the author has spent countless hours investigating this mystery by following an extensive paper trail, interviewing friends and family and traveling to locations of possible sightings.
"What you have said in the dark will be heard in the daylight, and what you have whispered in the ear in the inner rooms will be proclaimed from the roofs."
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Questions and Comments PART TWO
Do you have any comments or questions about this mystery? Ask them here or just to add to the discussion about the case.
Rick is there a way (is your blog set up to do this) that a person can sign up to get notifications to my email, everytime you and/or someone else makes a post on your blog? ( I look here often, but don't want to miss any posts) I have looked, and don't see anyway to do that. Carol
Me again...just thought I would let you know... I found and signed up to get posts delivered to my email. Don't know why i did'nt see the option before! lol Maybe cause my brain and eyesight are getting fried from so much research ; ) Carol
Rick, Thanks for writing this book. Every few months, I had been going online to see if anything new came up on the McStay case. I was excited when I found this blog and saw you had published your book. I immediately ordered it and read the whole thing in one sitting.
Just my 2 cents, the most plausible theory to me, is they took off out of fear of retaliation for the false child abuse charges.
The family disappeared 2/4 and the investigation concluded "the first week of February." I believe SM may have opened a letter on 2/4, indicating the investigation was over, or about the be over. She calls JM in a panic, and once he arrives home, they start to put a plan in motion to leave.
Summer's husband and family were her WHOLE WORLD--she was not gonna take any chances on losing her kids. This also explains the search for Mexico on their computer. They were planning for the worst.
I thought the only passport was Joey's. Summer's was expired and the children didn't have any. Somebody did a search on the McStay computer for information about going to Mexico with children without passports. Authorities said they found e-mails from Joseph and Summer asking about passport information and entry into Mexico before February 4.
Hello, I am new to this board. I have read the book No Goodbyes. I have a question about passports. I have watched a couple of shows that were aired on the McStays, there was a point in time where the investigator had said that he had not found any passports in the home. This was early in the investigation. It has been three years now. Have the passports ever been found? Susan was in the house what seem to be for cleaning things out of the house and getting rid of belongings. Would she have found passports? Would she say if she had? Any news on this?
Hi Rick, Congratulations on writing a gripping account of this most bizarre disappearance. I have been following the case since the onset and I am among the addicted; thoughts and theories on my mind almost daily. What was not mentioned in your book was the so called strange ringing at the door of the Mcstay's house one night about a week before their disappearance. Somewhere I had read that Summer was on the phone and remarked to whom ever was on the other end that someone was at their door. I am wondering if in fact that was the case, perhaps that individual who I believe Joey let in was the person who helped to orchestrate the plan. For I really believe that a plan had been in the making for a while. It began with Summer, this complex and quirky woman with a need for control and obvious anger issues. I do not believe however that she was capable of killing Joey, but I do think she was stressing him out to the point that it was affecting his health. I think that Summer realized the damage and havoc she was creating on his emotions and thus the request for the anger medication. She was rational enough and wanted to save her marriage, so she requested a holistic approach in desperation. In the weeks before their disappearance, I believe that she became totally fed up with the house, her extended family, and their new life style. Summer probably presented all her despair to Joey and perhaps offered him an ultimatum," I am leaving with the kids if we don't get away from our messy life!" Joey, a giver and nurturer, gave in and thus began a plan to exit. Could they have accomplished such a feat alone? IMPOSSIBLE! Perhaps that late night visitor helped in their escape. Nothing in the facts thus far, make me believe that they feared for their lives. Everything was staged and I agree with those that believe Joey's mother and brother knew what was about to go down. When Joey pulled over and told his mom about another bout with dizziness, I think he was telling her that he just couldn't take the stress living with a very angry and distressed wife. Another thought occurred to me, that perhaps the unidentified Craigs list men were also paid off to help implement the plan. Just rambling, but who knows? The sighting in North Carolina seems very credible and I do not believe that any member of this family is deceased. Mike and his mother are hiding a lot. Mom came into the home not because of knowing of a murder, but rather because she wanted to make sure that no evidence in the house remained that could lead investigators to find her family. As far as the missing futon cover, it could have been quickly taken by the Mcstays the night they left.(possibly to throw some light articles of clothing in). Joey and Summer are living a nomadic life, their only stress now being to remain camouflaged. They are out there. They will be found. Just one little slip. So, let's all be vigilant. Thanks for all your dedication and throwing some interesting theories out there.
I agree with a lot of what you say. I think SM was fed up with her life too, and she found the opportunity to escape that life when they were facing retaliation from the false child abuse charges. There was her chance to convince JM to run.
Hi Rick, Thanks for posting the thoughts of two of the New Team members earlier this morning. What happened to the postings? There was a lot of food for thought and i was interested to come back and re-read those thoughts again (as well as hoping to read any new postings). It was great that you seemed to share the info right away. Respectfully, may i ask if you will continue to post the team members thoughts? Thanks for all your work on this.
Rick, I enjoyed the book. Job well done. My only small complaint is that the writing itself wasn't fantastic. It was passable, however, and that in and of itself is a feat - I've written a book (on a technical topic) and it's no picnic. It deserves to sell well if for no other reason that you actually bothered to tackle a difficult and intriguing story in a completely competent manner.
A few questions:
(1) I don't believe it was specifically mentioned in the book (although maybe I missed it) but, what prevented Joseph's dad from coming out to California when the disappearance was finally confirmed? I thought you alluded to some legal issue at some point in the book but I never found out what it was.
(2) Of the three sightings mentioned in the book, what probability would you place on each of them actually having been the McStays? I realize this requires a lot of intuition and gut feeling, but I'm curious... it seemed like the Merida sighting was well-grounded.
(3) Based on what you know now - after the book has been published - what is your best guess as to what happened to the family and where they are now?
Hello, just finished the book downloaded on my kindle....I enjoyed it thoroughly however I was disappointed the last page didn't end with "and they were all found safe and happy the end" lol
Now I am even more curious unsettled obsessed etc As a mom of two little girls my heart thoughts prayers are with the boys...two innocent children. what does their future hold? will they be able to grow up and have happy normal life? How hard it must be for them to grow up in hiding without any grandparents aunts uncles cousins.....no support system...I think they are alive, I have to think this, the alternative is to heart wrenching
Anyway, quick question, I sensed in the book that you really are not a fan of summer and one plausible theory is she "offed" Joseph. First do you think she could have been poisoning him slowly maybe with large amounts of homeopathic meds? Second are their ANY redeeming qualities about this women?
After reading your book and some of the blog postings I have found a few issues that are MORE puzzling than the rest. First, the fact that Summer has bi-polar/BPD and may have been cheating on Joey. I was in a relationship with a woman with the same issues and in my experience they always have a "backup plan" in the form of another man (Summer didn't leave her ex until she "had" Joey). I have no doubt that she would have had a hook in someone, and may have already reeled him in. People with this disorder cannot be alone. If there was another man he would have had money and he would have done anything to be with her (i.e. help her get rid of a body and disappear so they could be together). Another issue is the missing futon cover...seems like the perfect thing to wrap up a body in for transport and dumping. Being an investigator myself, the money transfers are ALARMING. Usually following the money trail will lead to whomever had a hand in committing the crime. This would lead me to believe that either DK or MM was the other guy in Summer's life however I don't believe this. I think that they both took the money once they realized that the family was gone. Perhaps not knowing that they weren't coming back anytime soon, but instead just because they could and didn't care what (if any) repercussions would come upon Joey's return. They both seemed to want more and more money from him up until his disappearance. These are some thoughts for now. I'm going to re read the book. I hope i'm wrong and they are all alive somewhere, happy and healthy. However if something terrible did happen to Joey by Summer (i.e. poisoning) then the two boys need to be found and spared from living a life on the run with a mentally unstable mother. -LMC
I don’t mean to harp on you but I really think you are taking unsubstantiated claims as facts. Summer being bi-polar/BPD is NOT a fact, it is just a suggestion by the author, which I think is very irresponsible considering that he is NOT a mental health professional. While I applaud RB for his work, he does not have the professional ability to access whether or not someone he’s NEVER even met has either disorder. Secondly, are you a mental health professional? Do you have any factual information stating that “people with this disorder cannot be alone”? If not, please don’t go around making statements like that and spreading information that is INCORRECT. The same goes for Summer’s “alleged” affair. RB mentions ONCE in the book that a black corvette MAY have been seen at the McStay house during the day and somehow that means Summer was cheating on her husband? People need to stop and pay attention to what is fact and what has been written. I read the book several times and about 90% of RB claims have no evidence to back them up or they came from “people who did not want to be identified” which means there is no way for us to know if what they said is even true. While I don’t think Summer was an angel, I don’t think she deserves this info being spread about her when no one even knows if it is true. How would you feel if this was your family member and thousands of people who didn’t know her posted stuff like she was bi-polar/BPD and unfaithful in her marriage. Probably not very good. I’m defending Summer because I know her or her family, I just feel she is unfairly being portrayed by people who don’t know her or have evidence to back up their claims and I think it needs to stop.
I watched a documentary about this missing family just 15 minutes ago on Investigation Discovery, and I was so curious to discover more, so I got on the internet to see, and realised today is the day of the book releasing(and the 3rd anniversary,, I can't believe it! ) Well, I'm not from the USA, and I'd really like to read the book, I became obsessed with the case. My question is: Is the book available in Europe?
Also, I've noticed that Summer's sister (Tracy, is it? ) is kinda mysterious... Why didn't she mention before that her sister changed name(several times!) ? She talked about it only after the police has revealed it already. Her answer was simply: ''Summer is just Summer...'' I think the whole family took part in this dissappearance, and I would really love to read the book for some new facts, because the only report about them is that short (45 min or less) documentary and I feel I missed most of it.
No matter what your intentions are of writing the book, the McStay family should be intelligent enough to realize that ALL press on this helps. Keeps it in the public's eye and mind. Whether it be Nancy Grace yelling about it, or a radio personality writing about it, the family should embrace the publicity. Isn't everyone looking for the same outcome? That they will be found?
Rick--what do you make of Joey's "illness?" Did he get a diagnosis from the hospital? Was Summer drugging him to hide what she was up to? Do you think it's possible that she and Joey's brother colluded on anything--like stealing money--and this somehow ended very badly for the family?
I find it so fascinating that Joseph is always described as a wonderful, caring and sweet guy (and I believe he was) and that he was married to a con! It's amazing how many posters try to frame having multiple aliases as "normal" and not connected to crime. "Summer" was 10 years older than she told Joey, and she operated under a large number of aliases. Did Joey just not know about Summer (and his brother) being dishonest? Do you know where she picked up the "Martinelli" moniker? I'm not sure I can put together in my mind that Summer killed Joey, but I do know that she was bad news, and at the very least, she engaged in fraud. Coupled with the brother stealing all Joey's money while the family was "on an extended weekend"--it seems likely that Summer and Mark had a lot in common.
I'm so happy I stumbled across this site. Had no idea anyone was writing a book about the McStays! I'll definitely be ordering it. What a weird story, anyways.. I swear since the first time I saw them on tv, Ive been obsessed -- I need to know what happened to them! It bothers me. Some nights I (still) think about this family before I go to sleep, just going over all the possibilities as to their whereabouts. I check every week to see if they've turned up. Nothing makes sense to me though.. I constantly feel as though there's a whole part to the story which I've never heard, something that's missing.. I guess that's what you'll be uncovering? Can't wait!
You really believe that Summer killed Joseph and that Mike was at the house the night it happened.
Your theory is a far cry from what many others honestly believe happened. Most believe that the entire family went into hiding or that the entire family was harmed by someone. Most people have been told and believe that Mike had nothing to do with his brother's disappearance and that he came in exactly when he said he did, ten days or so into this, and then later, realizing his brother's bank accounts were being foraged, took it upon himself and had everything blocked, closed, or switched over to his name until his brother and family were found? What proof is there to the contrary?
For me, yours would be the worst scenario possible. It's the ultimate betrayal of Joseph who we have all become so fond of.
I'm just afraid for the entire McStay family after hearing this radio interview.
Hello Rick, I am one of the former neighbors who spoke with you in 2011. I have since moved to TX, much better business climate here. Anyway, I have been following your page here from the beginning and I just wanted to make one comment for those who think they know what happened and do not. I lived very close to the McStay family and as I told you, never even met them. They were not sociable to me or the other neighbors. They came and went very fast and other than their barking dogs, I would not have even known they were ever gone. No one knows what happened, except the investigators and it is pretty silly for many who have commented here and on the Find the McStay sites to claim they do. Maybe they don't understand how silly they look or maybe they don't care. I know that your book has not solved the case but I am still going to buy it because i will always wonder what happened, even though I now live 1300 miles away.
Very intriguing. Rick you have indicated you believe Summer was involved in some way with Joseph's disappearance/ possible demise and then you suggest his brother Michael is complicit as well. I find this interesting because from all I have read on this case, I do not think Michael was a fan of Summer's and vice versa so the thought that both of them could be simultaneously involved is mind-blowing. I look forward to the book for more explanation on this!
First of all, let me congratulate you on your excellent site. On each visit I learn something new, and it is appreciated. Then, I would like to share with you - but surely you've read this before - a theory I read recently, well, part of this theory because I want to add something, and I hope that my speculations are wrong. Perhaps you’ll share your views on the matter.
I read that maybe Summer may have been involved or had some connections with a prostitution ring - maybe the fur coats and extremely high heels direct to this speculations -that her husband was probably unaware of... Then one day the husband found her hands in the dough and suddenly she with the assistance of "someone" (who also was on Summer’s side) forced Joseph to leave the house to some remote location and there ... made him disappear. Then, Summer and the kids and that "someone" went into hiding. And that “someone” is very well known to Mike ...
I can not understand that a family of four disappears and no family member notify the authorities until seven days later. Perhaps this was done to allow enough time for traces and such disappear…
Another aspect that I personally find curious is the physical appearance of the children and the husband (untidy and poorly maintained), and the messy visual effect of the furniture; this show a high degree of disorder. Clutter is an indication that something is not right in the mind or in someone's life. Another thing, I read that the house was purchased sometime in November, then why all the beds and sheets were as if the family had not the slightest intention of remaining there. As if there was a hidden plan to disappear sooner or later; a double-family agenda; parallel plans.
Well I hope to receive your feedback. Oh, by the way, I have already ordered your book.
Rick... I would love to listen to the radio interview you did with Mike, but I can't seem to find it anywhere! Can u please give directions to find/listen to it, if that is an option somewhere. Thanks Carol
I've been looking for the interview too and would love to listen to it also! Rick, you've done an amazing job bringing light to this case. I'm based in Western Australia and one day I was swimming at a beach and noticed a man who looked very similar to Joey. I doubt it was him -otherwise I would have reported the sighting- and I didn't see who the man was with, but it did make me think about the possibility of them being here, perhaps? As another commenter mentioned there is not much known about the case here, so it could be a perfect place to hide for them really. Basically, what I am trying to say is that the publicity of this book really ought to be bringing more much needed international awareness to the case. Keep up the good work and let's find those precious little boys. :)
I'm surprised so many people think one may have murdered the other.
Let's take SM, for example: Summer was angry on 2/4. She tried to purchase a home remedy called ANGER that day. We've seen emails where she comes across as very vicious and cold. Assuming SM killed JM, why would MM and the mother be behaving so suspiciously (delaying reporting the family missing, taking their computer, cleaning up the potential crime scene.) They WOULD NOT cover for her, based on their strained relationship, and they love JM. Plus, there's no blood evidence or any evidence of a fight to the death in the home. Joey was not well, but I doubt SM could overpower him and kill him in the home. She wanted Joey to herself. She wanted Joey distanced from his son, and his family. I read she once told JM's mom--"you're not one of the four". She needed and wanted him, to the exclusion of all others. He was very important to her.
JM killing SM is also unbelievable. He drives home, after what seemed to be pretty normal day, and kills her? With his kids in the house? Kind, laid-back people (as JM was described as)don't just do that one day, no matter how mad they get or how much they argue. Even if she tried to strike him in anger, let's say, I highly doubt he'd subdue her and lash back to the point of her death.
So after this presumed muder: SM carries JM's body (no easy task)to the car and drives off unseen with him & the kids? She didn't have help--no other cars were seen by their house at that time. Or JM waits til dark to sneak SM's body in the back of the car behind where the kids are strapped in also seems unlikely.
The computer search for Mexico & purchase of Spanish language software shows they were planning to leave. The haste with which they left shows they felt an immediate threat.
What was the threat? My belief is SM feared retaliation from the false abuse stories & convinced JM to run. The timing of the ending of the investigation and their departure is too coincidental. We know no charges came about, but that doesn't mean the stepdad would just forget about she'd/they'd done. The mother emailed JM to tell him no charges came about. She thought he might've left because of it.
There are "normal" families killing family members every single day in the news. Just yesterday, a grandmother shot her two small grandchildren and then herself. Last week a French woman killed her entirely and 17 year old children. And that's just in the last week... Not to mention the ones that didn't make the news. And besides that, as we've all read, things weren't entirely peachy keen behind the closed doors of the McStay home. From a mental health perspective, if Summer truly had Borderline Personality Disorder, there is no telling what chaos may have transpired in that home. BPD is enough to drive a sane person crazy. Not to mention that one of the diagnostic criteria for BPD is that you go back and forth between highly valuing a person and then hating them the next for some "imagined slight."
Agreed, "normal" people kill every day. We only hear about the most sensational stories. But look at the big picture, and all that we know, and there's no evidence of a murder in the home or the car. We can analyze both SM & JM for days, but what other credible evidence is there that one is dead at the others hand?
Rick thanks for the book im so desperate to get.Did the family let u know about the missing futon cover or u worked it out i think a cover missing shows some sort of deception. Its such a mystery nobody in Australia that i speak to knows about it but im leting them know to read u book.Keep up the good work
SG, have you read the book? It would seem Joey's mom scrubbed away any potential evidence.... And if you read the book, you see that Summer could be a vicious piece of work. And... The possibility that she had Borderline Personality Disorder would explain a lot (I'm a mental health professional.... But do your own reading on BPD). Not saying there's evidence.... Everything is just speculation, but it does seem she could be capable. However, after reading the book, I'm leaning towards thinking DK and MM were partners in crime and the whole family is dead. While Summer may have had the capacity to have killed Joseph, her anger doesn't automatically make her a killer. I think she's innocent, too. - KN-
Yes, I read the book. I'm just not entirely buying that SM was killed, although the clean up and the mothers comment (SM won't need that where she is)are certainly ominous.
The Mexico computer search, and spanish language software purchase carry more weight with me. I think, and my opinion often changes with this case, they left voluntarily for Mexico.
Rick have you been contacted by 48 Hours since they are currently interviewing family members for an upcoming show? I find it hard to believe your book would not be mentioned.
I want to know more about Summer's biological father. Where is he? What does he do for a living? Has he ever showed any interest in his daughter missing even though summer did'nt want to have anything to do with him? Summer was extremely upset over Joey snooping and trying to find her father (evident by the email she wrote to Joey that is in Ricks book. There are a few ways u could look at this.... If I was Summer and did'nt want contact with my father and my boyfriend kept bringing it up and trying to find him, after I had told him to "stop it" That would really pissing me off. But, it sounds like more then that she just doesent want contact with him. It sounds like she is trying to hide something. She writes "My family does not concern you what so ever." Who says that...to someone that they are about to marry!!!??? On the other hand..as Dr. Phil would say " people that have nothing to hide, hide nothing." For a person to snoop into a loved ones lives, they have reason too. (there gut instinct says something doesent feel right..there seem to be secrets here.) I am thinking that is why Joey kept snooping. Sooo was Summer's father involved in some illegal activity?Does Summer and her family FEAR her Father for some reason? But still...why not share this was your soon to be husband!? Why so secretive? It seems like Summer had a LOT of secrets! Carol
The picture of the family crossing into Mexico included in Rick's book is the best quality picture I've seen yet. If you look closely, the person walking in front is holding the hand of a child. If you look over the other shoulder, you see what seems to be a baby's head. Then the person behind that person is holding the hand of what would be a third child. This image convinced me this is NOT the McStay family. I am positive the family we see had three children. I wish families crossing the border that day would hear about this case and step forward if that's their family.
To the person who thinks it would have been challenging for Summer to carry Josephs body....I believe she simply would have put the futon cover on the floor, rolled him onto it, and dragged it to the car. Who knows what she did to get it in the car? She could have offered money to Kavanaugh to help her... Maybe that's why he thought he had the right to drain the account and why money was left behind... And where he got the passwords. We know he was motivated by greed and seemingly has no moral compass! He didn't care for Joseph, either.
Just playing devil's advocate here--but would you drag a body out to your car at roughly 7:45 p.m. in a suburban neighborhood? If SM killed JM, I would think she'd want to wait until after midnight to avoid being seen. And we only saw one car leaving the driveway and no video of another. Not saying it's not possible, just working it out in my head.
Remember how strangely MM and the mom behaved after the family disappeared? This leads me to believe that if anyone is dead, it's SM. Because it doesn't seem likely they'd cover for her killing JM.They may not know exactly where the family is, but I believe they know the circumstances of them leaving.
As for DK, I initially thought MM had DK help him access the accounts to funnel $ to JM, but I would think LE would be able to see where that money's going from MM's account. Now I think they both got greedy after seeing the family disappear and helped themselves. I've read about a secret bank account, so maybe that's where the family gets the money to survive on the run.
I considered that same thing, SG...but the Isuzu was in the garage, of course....and then there wouldn't be drag marks in the dirt, either.
As for MM and mom's behavior, I've thought a lot about that. It may not be that they know anything at all. Their strange behavior may reflect the fact that they robbed Joey's safe and his bank accounts, and they may really know nothing about the disappearance but instead we are seeing the shame they feel at taking their brother's money as soon as he went missing. (MM had asked for money on numerous occasions, as we read in the book, and I find it highly unlikely that Joseph kept the kind of cash in his wallet that he would "lend" to Mike.)
I, too, think it's more likely that Joseph killed Summer (Mike not reporting the disappearance for ELEVEN DAYS!? What kind of brother would do that? Seems super fishy to me! And lying to his dad about checking out the house? He probably very well didn't have to check out the house because he knew exactly what was going on...I still hold to the fact that in those four days before the car was found MM and JM were digging a grave together and making a "plan" and a "story" for the cops and the media...)
BUT, considering that Rick knows a lot more than we do, and he is searching for Summer, at this point I am going to go along with Rick and say she very well could have dragged that body to the car parked in the garage and headed for Bonsall because "what if" someone came by the house and found a dead Joseph? She had to HURRY and hide the evidence!
I agree about the secret bank account. SM couldn't very well get a job if she is in hiding, and MM didn't even know about that account, from what we know. She had to have stashed away a LOT of that dirty money she got from her mortgage scams!
Good point about the Isuzu being in the garage--I didn't think of that! And I agree that the mom's strange behavior might not be her covering up a murder. SM was volatile, but I don't think she'd kill JM. I posted above why I don't think either of them killed the other.
But, if one thinks that SM killed JM, then how do we explain their leaving the home at 7:47 (as recorded on videotape) and JM having a 1 minute phone call @ 8:28? The book says we don't know that JM spoke to anyone, but I saw a program that said he had a normal conversation with a "business associate"? Of course, SM could've used his phone, but this raises some more questions as to who's telling the truth.
SG, do we know for sure JM returned home from his business meeting in Rancho Cucamonga on the day of Thursday, Feb. 4? We know JM still wasn't home at 5:47 PM based on text messages between his and Summer's phones. We know the family vehicle departed the home at 7:47 PM. Did JM ever return to the home that day from work? Could have Summer taken the children to meet up with JM somewhere near Bonsall. JM's last outgoing call at 8:28 PM pinged a tower in Bonsall. Did JM make that last call to CM or did somebody else make that call using his phone?
Summer's cell phone received 8 text messages after Thursday, Feb. 4. Some of these messages were from McGyver McCargar and Dan Kavanaugh. Why were they texting Summer and not JM? Records indicate these text messages to Summer pinged the same cell tower as JM's outgoing phone call on the night of the disappearance. Others pinged a tower just across the river in this location. McCargar and Kavanaugh were in that area on Friday and Saturday based on the location of the pings.
Remember, JM wasn't feeling well on Feb. 4 based on a phone conversation with his mother. "Joe told me he wasn't feeling good that day. His equilibrium wasn't right and I felt something was wrong." It's hard to believe JM, not feeling well, would return home after a long day, to turn around and go back out so soon after arriving home. IMO, JM did not return home from work that day.
True, JM didn't feel well on 2/4, so we presume that they left abruptly that night because of something sudden and serious.
We don't know for sure that JM came home, but he drove the Isuzu to his meeting, and it was seen on the tape leaving at 7:47, so we think he came home.
I'm interested to hear more about what you think happened if JM didn't didn't make it home. Thanks.
I even question if the video taken from the neighbors survelliance tape is REAL? I have just seen this on the "Disappearence" show. And THAT is clearly, a reanactment video. (in my opinion) Has anyone seen a video that actually looks REAL of the TROOPER pulling out of the driveway? BUT, then again.. a video "could" exist from the camera showing the trooper leaving, but it makes no sense that the rest of what the surviellance "may" have caught does not want to be release by the owner! Mike states in one place that the camera quit working at midnight. Hmmmmmmmm Something regarding this so called video clearly doesnt make sense, in more then one way! although there are lots of things in the case that dont make sense! lol ; ) IF they are in the WPP, (which I believe) you can't even trust ANY info that LE has put out there!!!!!
It is not a clickable link. You can copy and paste into your browser.
Here is the text from the link.
Keep in mind though, how utterly foolish it is for "River" to make a statement that "He has nothing to do with this missing family," when she knows little about the case, the extended family, or much else related to this disappearance.
RiverSelah RiverSelah~ Psalms 91
Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,617
I've chatted with Mike McStay on FB about his missing brother- his heart is broken. I didn't realize how close he was to the boys, his brother and Summer until reading his posts.
He has nothing to do with this missing family. He just wants them found. Very nice man, he has a beautiful family of his own and is very respectful and kind when people throw him under the bus. __________________ Bad spellers of the world Untie!
I downloaded NO GOODBYES last night (I must give a shout-out to the guy at the Nook customer service hotline for being so patient with me). Loved it! Of course, now I have even more questions (comments and rants, too) about the case. There are so many twists and turns that almost any theory seems plausible to me right now.
Definite Red Flags:
1. Summer's obvious emotional/mental issues. I have a sister-in-law who's bipolar and at one point while reading, I could've sworn you were describing my sister-in-law and not Summer.
2. Susan going crazy cleaning the kitchen. And then the crazy looting and selling of items from the house.
3. Mike McStay.
4. Dan Kavanaugh.
5. Loan Modification Scam.
6. Joseph's "funky" illness.
WHERE ARE THEY? WHAT HAPPENED? As usual, every time I learn new information about the case, my head just hurts. Between the McStay case, the Jamison Family case, and the imposter/Nicholas Barclay case, I want to hole up in a room and start some investigating of my own.
Can't speak for anyone else but I've hit the burn-out point with this case. I truly thought that with the publication of the book, someone would come forward anonymously or not with some information. Then when Rick offered a second and higher reward I thought "alright NOW someone will talk". None of this has panned out and it's really a head-scratcher.
I'm glad that this book got the attention it did because at least a major network special will (hopefully) be done about it and if it were not for this book the case would have kept fading as it has for the last few years. I'm afraid the CBS coverage will produce the same results that the book and rewards did- nothing. Still, it is better to have had this in the spotlight even if for a short time than not at all.
Thank you Rick for the work you have done and for weathering the storm of negativity that has come from members of the McStay family and their cheerleaders. If nothing comes from any of this at least you tried and at the end of the day that's what counts.
When there is a mystery like this it seems easy to place great importance on issues and circumstances that would otherwise be seen as prosaic and mundane. Most cases like this end up either being very intimate--as in someone the victim/victims know committed the crime--for reasons that may or may not make sense. But no one close to the McStays appears to have profited or held a grudge. Unless J's exwife had something going on.
OR; it's a complete freak, wrong time, wrong place scenario.
It's really possible that the McStays went out to run errands, encountered a bad situation--road rage, who knows? Family was hurt by someone with a record, afraid of exposure, and to get rid of witnesses someone buried them in the area where their phones were reported to ping. Then realizing that the McStay vehicle could be easily linked to the crime, placed it somewhere near the border to throw off the investigation.
If this is a crime, it doesn't appear to be for profit. All valuables remain--no car jacking etc. So whoever did this had personal reasons, either random or planned.
I don't believe that the McStays would stay in hiding for this long. But the children may have survived. There should be age-enhanced pictures produced.
For all we know the painter who was abruptly dismissed came back to get paid and something went down.
While Rick will deny it in his humility, he has shown us that he is a modern day hero. I admire your devotion and selflessness, Rick. Here is a link this week that brought you to mind....a hero whether you want the title or not.
Don't let the haters scare you away and destroy this "online fingerprint" of the McStay family case. You've come too far to just fade away. I'm afraid it is what some people desire, but those of us who support you want the exact opposite. Don't let them win.... Even if it means simply leaving this blog here so as to show them that you won't back down to "bullies."
If this were an episode of Law & Order the killer would be Joseph's ex-wife or someone associated with her. Who else really gains by the ENTIRE family vanishing? You have a first son being distanced from his father's life. A father who is just beginning to see financial success. A stepmother who expresses an exclusion of all those who came before.
Though it's not that much money now, perhaps the thought was that there would be more. Perhaps the ex thought there was more money than there was. And there may be an emotional component as well. What was Joseph's relationship with his ex?
i would have to think that Joseph's first son would inherit the lion share of what is there.
Again, this is a fictional type theory. But life being stranger than fiction, many times, perhaps a version of this is what happened.
The problem with missing persons investigations is that the "crime scenes" aren't treated as such, until it is too late
By all accounts, JM and the ex had a cordial relationship, and it was mentioned in the book that she would come to their home and frequently confide in JM. Also mentioned that JM was encouraged by the ex to maintain his relationship with his oldest son. Not saying your theory isn't possible, of course. Who knows what went on below the surface, or only they know about.
But, your mentioning of an inheritance makes me wonder if the family will ever be declared "Missing and presumed dead". Because unless that happens, nobody would get anything that would be in the family's will (although we don't know if there was one)
What I'm wondering is if Rick ever learned anything about Summer's father? If you've read the book, you see that it was Joey searching for Summer's biological father that brought out her rage. Perhaps he was a dangerous man. That could explain why it set Summer off and perhaps why she's changed her name so many times (trying to hide from the man).
SG I have no idea what really happened. And No Goodbyes does give some interesting info not presented before.
The simple answer would be that the family left of their own accord. But if they didn't, and they were say, abducted, chances are slim, that three years later that they are still being held in captivity. If they didn't leave of their own accord, they are likely gone.
So if they aren't living a life incognito, and they did meet with foul play, someone had to have done something to them.
This next is gruesome and horrible to even mention, but to murder four people and dispose of the bodies is no small feat. And if such a crime took place, certainly there would be evidence. The easiest way to hide the evidence is in a home unlikely to be searched or in the wilderness.
IF, foul play is involved the family would have to have been killed someplace other than their home. And though Mexico is a possibility, it's more likely, if the entire family were harmed, that they were somewhere enclosed and State side.
No one has ever said where the family was thought to be going when they left their home that night. Perhaps they were going to the house of someone they knew---and this is where things turned ugly. There were the accusations of child abuse against the husband of Joseph's ex. That type of accusation, especially if true, could easily cause rage.
If the family was killed, it would seem that either it was a fluke, road rage, some crazy event--or, planned and orchestrated in a house. Otherwise how do you carry out the act?
I am still baffled why there aren't age-enhanced photos of the kids all over the place. If anyone were to have survived a horrific event like this, it would be the children.
Anonymous, I agree very much with everything you said.
Murdering 4 people did not happen in the McStay residence. Could it have happened someplace else? Sure. We just don't know enough, and there's no known evidence as to where that was. That's why I'm thinking it may not have happened. How many perfect muders are there? I'm just looking at the simplest explanation--no evidence of murder=no murder. Of course, like you said, there's the wilderness or an unsearched home that are possible places. We just don't know.
But I'm thinking, a fluke or road rage would not be this unsolvable. Because the perpetrators are reckless and it's in the heat of the moment, and hard to cover up. Unlike pre-meditation.
I think the lack of age-enhanced photos are because LE believes it to be a voluntary disappearance (not illegal). JMO
Criminals make mistakes, especially if passion plays a part. Though the inheritance might have been a miscalculation on the part of the person doing the harm, money could be a motive here.
I've just caught onto this, but here's something interesting, if u go under his fb page joe mcstays, he's not friends with summer & there are no pictures of her on there...jw its kind of creepy
I never looked at JM's FB page until just now, and you're certainly right about that.
Summer seems to be a very "off the grid" type person. She gave birth at home, home schooled her kids, and worked from home. Also, she pretended she was younger than she was, that she was Italian, and changed her name/aliases often. If she were on FB, it would be much harder to conceal her true age/name/heredity. You might slip up, or someone could call you out on your lies.
To me, a person who does things like the above would not seem to even consider having an internet presence.
I'm thinking she must've told JM not to post pics of her, but it is rather glaring to post your own wedding pics online WITHOUT your spouse in any of them!
...BUT there are many YouTube videos of her posted by Joseph. OR ELSE that would make sense... The Youtube videos have always been odd to me as well. I mean, who the hell films drives to their new potential house? especially when your wife is bitter and arguing somewhat! Let alone, WHO POSTS them on Youtube??? Were they trying to show a friends or relative the properties? if so why not take them down?
I'm starting to think those personal Youtube videos were staged in some sort of fashion. Especially the one driving to the Fallbrook house, and also the one checking out the Temecula property.
SG, but if the disappearance is believed to be voluntary, why air it on every television outlet available? As long as you are going to do this much, why not present photos that will do some good?
Also, perfect murders really may happen more than we would like to believe--there are plenty of disappearances that are highly suspicious, that never get solved.
Whole families disappearing is extremely rare, so the media grabbed hold of this story and ran with it. It a sad fact that certain crimes (or potential crimes) garner more coverage than others, for example, the story of a young, white female going missing will get national exposure, while a minority young woman's disappearance most likely will not.
The "perfect" family disappearing under very mysterious circumstances is a headline grabber. This is why I think the story got so much exposure. And although the family is listed as "Voluntary Missing" now, in the beginning all anyone knew is the family hadn't been seen or heard from in over a week.
As to the lack of age-enhanced photos, I just don't know. Maybe LE doesn't do that when they decide the people left willingly. Why use the resources to find those who don't want to be found? Maybe LE actually does know the family is alive and well. They certainly wouldn't be obligated to explain to the public their findings.
I agree, perfect murders do happen often. IMO, based on the book and what I've read/seen on tv about this case, I don't think anyone was killed, but I do understand why people would think so. Given that the family has been gone so long and the lack of sightings (I don't give much weight to the eyewitness statements) those are compelling reasons to think of the disappearance as a possible homicide.
I agree with part of your assessment SG. LE either believes the family left voluntarily and has believed that for a long time or LE dropped the ball so badly in the beginning that now they literally have no clue and of course can't admit to it.They have been especially tight-lipped about this case for the past 2 years or so. I agree it does not seem likely a crime was committed at least in the US and if they made it to an acceptable destination off the grid it isn't likely anything happened since.True a road rage flukey thing is not out of the question it's just highly improbable and as you said by now there would be some clues; slip-up or jailhouse confession from someone. It just hasn't happened. Occam's razor for sure- the fewer assumptions we make the closer we will be to discovering what really happened.
I just keep coming back to the computer search for childrens passport requirements for travel in Mexico (8 days prior to disappearance) and potential purchase of Spanish language software (in December) oh, and the videotape. Very strong evidence, IMO, they planned to leave.
SG I think you are right. I am a fiction writer and so have a fiction writer's take. But I have also done a lot of research into cases of disappearances, combing just about every website, from Doe to NAMus.
As unusual as it is for an entire family to be murdered, it's just as unusual, it seems, for an entire family to disappear without any one seeing them after.
There is the case of Madalyn O'Hair who, along with her adult son and daughter vanished. Everyone believed they had run of to New Zealand with millions in money donated to their cause--American Atheists. The case was finally solved and it turned out that an ex-employee of the the organization had arranged for their kidnapping and then stole from their bank accounts, etc..
With the McStays there doesn't seem to be this kind of money trail. So who knows...
Hopefully all is well with the McStays, and they are living off the grid for reasons that are unique to them.
But they are really doing an amazing job of staying under the radar, if that is the case.
Yes, I've watched a true crime program about the O'Hair family, very tragic. I thought for sure someone who disagreed with their religious stance did away with them, and the motive turned out to be purely monetary. Go figure.
Some people believe there to be a monetary motive (their large bank account and JM's business) and money trail (the subsequest pilfering of their bank account)for getting rid of the McStay's, but I'm not one of them.
Speaking of missing families, there's the Jamison family of Oklahoma who still aren't accounted for. Not to go too much OT, but, as someone whose done research on disappearances, do you have an opinion on that case?
That is an interesting case. I really thought that they met up with someone--perhaps a stranger, and either fought with them--resulting in a death, that then created a need for the killer to get rid of everyone; or someone created the scenario to get rid of them. It's really easy to dispose of a body/bodies in the wilderness. Especially if someone is familiar with the terrain. I'm pretty sure that if the authorities immediately treated the scene as one of a crime, that might have been solved.
That is a major problem with missing persons cases--a lot of valuable info. vanishes by the time authorities decide the case is a crime.
Thanks for sharing your opinion. I also think that foul play was involved. There seems to be very little chance they are alive, unfortunately. They are probably right there on that mountain.
The program I saw speculated that because of the remoteness of their last known location, it's unlikely they just came across some trouble there. More likely, like you said, that someone may have created a scenario to lure them there.
The video of them loading the car was a bit bizarre, with their mechanical movements, and not speaking, but that may not really mean anything.
People speculated they were somehow involved in drugs, but a thorough search of the home turned up not one speck of drugs or drug related evidence.
I also agree that LE should initially treat missing persons cases as potential crimes. They must just determine that on a case by case basis.
Can someone please help me clear up my confusion regarding the Mcstays. I think I have it right that Mike is older then joey!??? Did Patrick adopt one of the boys? if so, which one, and how did that all work? (marriages etc.) And how many times was Susan married (the mother), and how many times was Patrick married? and does patrick have any kids from prior marriages. Sorry for all the questions but I have looked and cant find answers for these. Thank you in advance
Not a lot of info out there on your questions--but I'll try to answer: JM was adopted by Patrick & Susan, presumably at birth. They divorced when the boys were "very young" (from the book). I don't know for sure which brother is older, I think Mike? And I've never come across any info that would answer the other questions.
Thanku wendy, I hope this post gets shown as u hav said it will now. I want to give my opinion on this as a sufferer of bpd. I hope this gives people a new angle to look at. Firstly I want to get across that summers way of thinking is normal to her she is unaware that others don't think the same as her, she doesn't realise that her thoughts r oftern irrational. I think with rick releasing his book summers mind must hav gone in2 over drive recently if she's in hiding. As much as us bpd suffers want to cut ourselfs off from the world, we also over think situations, so we have to keep comunication to keep 1 step ahead of the world. I think in this blog we could have the thuth in a post posted by sm herself, she could have annonimously posted her own theorie, and 2 every1 it is just a theorie, but to sm its much more than that, its the thruth! And she would have posted it to see just how many people were close to the thruth and what evidence could back it up, if she nows this on Does Law Enforcement Always Tell The Truth?
Joseph is Susan's son with Mr. Ashley (not sure if they were married). I believe he is from Ohio but not sure on that. After Susan married Patrick they had Michael and PM adopted Joseph and raised him. So Joseph is not Patrick's biological son but Michael is.
Hi Wendy, will you please ask mr. baker if we get to hear the other team members theories like he posted two of them? Ask also if they are still working on the case? thankyou
Hello, Wendy - I, happily, have a copy of Mr. Baker's book. However, after having read through the entries here, specifically those on February 19, I don't think I have the latest version, which omits the porn references to Summer, along with other changes, 50 in all, I believe. In my book, those references and email are on pages 42-44. Has Mr. Baker posted the changes he made to the original version? I would like to see them. Thanks.
Hello Nora, Wendy here. When Mr. Baker returns I will ask him to post the list of the changes that were made in the revised version of the book. Please allow 2 weeks.
I don't think that the video crossing the border is of the McStays. If you are making a quick crossing of the border, where you are navigating the crossing with hundreds of others, you don't take your four year old's hand and walk. You carry the child. Four year olds are the slowest walkers ever.
It's really possible that the McStays were killed near their home. Not in their home. But near.
I find the quote from Joseph himself to the domain company employee, Paul on pg 145 in the book very telling. "Fountains are my life, EIP feeds my family. I can't have EIP disappear off the face of the earth and end up back in a cubicle working for someone else. But, if I have to for me and my family to survive, I will."
Joseph was dealing with a woman who exhibited a lot of Borderline or Axis II traits: They lost their apartment(eviciton) in San Clemente due to messy apartment, the house in Fallbrook was messy, disorganized and dirty diapers, Summer was deceitful and manipulative i.e. loan modification scam, lies about her identity, turning on her own family members and Joseph's extended family members and first born son, out of control shopping and spending of money for "things", entitled, selfish, dependent on others to survive, unrealistic, childish. Borderline people are very frustrating, draining, drama filled it is very hard to maintain relationships with them. Joseph had to deal with this for years. Now CPS was involved and Joseph may have felt that he would also be alienated from his sons in the investigation. Even if Joseph were to divorce Summer, he knew his sons would be subjected to her behaviors if she got joint custody, her lifestyle and choices in men. He had already dealt with that with his first wife and her choice of husband and how it had affected his first son. Joseph may have felt trapped and miserable, yet his sons were his priority over anyone and anything, even Summer's life. Joseph could have done the searches on the computer, he could have hinted to his bestfriend, Mcgyver his feelings and he could have left all the money in the bank accounts to cover his mortgage and his clients and walk away from taking that money with him. This would also get Mike and Dan off his back. Joseph would be more likely to leave the dogs. Joseph feeling sick may have been that he knew he had to do something to get away and he was planning his exit strategy. I'm beginning to believe the theory of the "expert team", that Summer is the one that is gone for good. Joseph and the boys may still be out there somewhere in the world. Living or working with borderline people is very, very difficult, and I think his family knew this better than anyone. When you look at Joseph's You Tube videos, I noticed he would often say "me or I" statements when talking about the new house, I think there was already trouble in paradise back then. IMHO.
Usually in cases like this the answer isn't from an episode of Law & Order. Most people who are killed, usually, are killed in the heat of passion--but there is almost always a history of violence in these cases; or they are murdered in the course of a theft of some sort. There's nothing to indicate that anyone in that family had a tendency towards violence. Joseph could have gotten a divorce, he'd done so before.
I think it's very important to not bash those who may be nothing more than victims. The author of No Goodbyes did put forward some very interesting info., but no one knows what happened.
And there is almost a cruelty in casting doubt on the character of people who are not here to defend themselves.
A theory is a theory, Webster's dictionary, states that a theory is abstract thought. This is a blog to post theories based on Mr. Baker's book and information from it, whether you agree with Mr. Baker's book or not this is his blog. Nobody's bashing anybody and nobody is being cruel to anyone.
I'm gonna agree with the poster who said "There's nothing to indicate that anyone in that family had a tendency towards violence. Joseph could have gotten a divorce, he'd done so before" If SM was so difficult and irrational, JM might not have a difficult time getting custody of his boys. Wouldn't one try that tack before resorting to murder?
I just can't see either of them planning to kill the other. SM MAY HAVE BEEN bi-polar/borderline, but it's important to remember that we don't know that for sure. And, even if we did, does that mean she's more prone to violence? I don't think so, but I'm not a mental health professional.
If the McStays didn't choose to leave, the most likely scenario is that they were harmed by strangers or an acquaintance who believed they had something to gain by their disappearance.
One theory I haven't read or heard is the scenario where Summer and the kids are abducted earlier in the evening, or even in the late afternoon.
The text messages that were sent from her phone, later to Joseph could have been sent by the abductors, making demands of Joseph. Joseph goes home, perhaps to check if the messages are a hoax, or to retrieve something that he needs in order fulfill the demands. Perhaps the abductors were familiar enough to him, that he believes he should try and handle the situation first on his own.
The call to his co-worker might have been in order to make some type of financial arrangement.
But when Joseph enters the place where Summer and the children are being kept, something goes terribly wrong.
The above scenario would explain why the house looked as if it had been abruptly left--even Summer's glasses having been left behind. It would explain the four day delay between the family disappearing and the car suddenly re-appearing. It would explain why neither the McStay car or their home appear to be a crime scene.
And why all communication just stops. There were those pings from the McStay cell phones in Bonsai, 76 miles from there home--perhaps that is where the abductors lived--or where they got rid of evidence.
Again, it's a crazy scenario, but no matter how you look at this, even if the McStays left voluntarily, the situation is bizare.
Ijust want to say something about Summers sunglasses being left being left behind. I believe they were left on purpose, to lead people down the path that they have gone, into thinking the McStays did not leave on their own accord. I think it was her sister (and since many others) that have said..she would'nt leave her glasses, she needs them to see. You have to remember, they were prescription sunglasses! She had regular prescription glasses to see with!!! A person does NOT NEED SUNGLASSES to see.
I just watched the "Disappeared" program on the family and had a question about JM's last phone call to CM.
According to the sheriff being interviewed: "That business partner had no indication that something was wrong." This is a very obscure statement. Doesn't really explain if he even spoke to him, does it? Yet I've read other places that they spoke, but maybe people just inferred that. The book says CM let the call go to voicemail.
Why are there conflicting reports as to whether JM actually actually spoke to CM, and is this significant?
Maybe CM was told by LE not to reveal the nature of their conversation.
Mr. Baker interviewed Mr. Merritt and in his taped interview. he told Mr. Baker that he did not answer the final call that evening. They spoke throughout the day on Feb. 4, 2010, but not in the evening when Mr. Merritt had arrived home. That is all I know, you will have to talk to Mr. Baker further.
When I first heard about the case I focused on that detail, but couldn't find any information on who the person was, and what was said. Of course, the last phone call a missing family makes is highly significant, so I was trying to determine what happened.
I just can't stop wondering what JM wanted to say.
Why pose these questions? Well, there were NO searches and supposedly NO evidence of a crime. The few sightings which seem to have one distinctive pattern in common--disappearance--Erased home video surveillance camera footage, poor video at a border which prides itself in the highest HD cameras, non-existent fingerprints on a map, few if any LE comments to the public, disappearing/unexplainable funds in accounts, blogs where administrators claim to have nothing to do with posts disappearing, portions of a video on reporter's blog which silently went away, boards which must be closed to the public because issues are too sensitive, a CNN blog which suddenly went offline, and the unfathomable disappearance of all, video footage at one of our safest U.S. ports.
Family member comments seem to echo a special need for privacy away from the prying eyes of the public. But, then I don't understand "the kidnapping scenario" unless it to throw off the public's speculation or why any of it would have needed to be made public from the start. Maybe the media started that downward spiral.
I agree with an above poster who states that people are most concerned with the children being safe. If in fact ALL family members and friends are totally alarmed, is it because of their privacy concerns, anger toward people's speculation, not knowing what happened to this family or a combination of all of these?
I feel the family members/friends have lost people they love and been without them at family celebrations for three whole years. Their normalcy disappeared with the family. And, I hope they do realize that the public has only one goal from my viewpoint--to find all four of them safe somewhere. Even though some comments on boards/blogs may have appeared callous over the years, I think many people are just so frustrated that a family could be missing for three years in our country and nothing can be done to find them or find that they are safe. With all of the things that have seemingly disappeared with this family and case, some of us may even be questioning our own family's safety.
The questions I was posing in my own above post disappeared. lol Here are those questions: Could some family members/friends trying to be discrete have something to do with one of the family members health? Could the family have gone somewhere for this reason? Had one of them needed help in the past for some reason? Did this individual feel a need to keep this private? Some people are gregarious, others not so much. Did one of them need help again?
Thanks, Wendy. Can't wait until Rick returns and we can learn more about the document dump. It is so unfair that Rick tried to do his best to solve this crime and some people denigrate him for his efforts. Shame on them!
Personally I don't care whether Mr.Baker releases the documents or not. Wendy is right, he is not obligated to do anything more than he already has. For people posting as though they are somehow entitled to see a "document dump" is ridiculous. Maybe Rick should have held off on announcing that. The only thing that would be interesting about it is the players involved all contradicting each other and no doubt a lot of backbiting. You don't have to be Nostradamus to predict how this will play out.
After reviewing the timeline again, I have to wonder if Summer and the kids weren't abducted first, then Joseph was either convinced to follow or lured to someplace thinking he would see them.
The texts Summer's phone sent to Joseph weren't necessarily written by her--or if they were, maybe she was forced to convince him to go to where the entire family met with some kind of fate.
It would explain the appearance of the house having been left suddenly. That there is no sign of violence in either their house or their car--and how an entire family could be ambushed. It would be easier to divide and abduct, than to take the family all at once.
It's all very conspiracy theory--and hopefully crazy and the McStays are on a hiatus of sorts. But if they were abducted, this would have been the cleanest manner to do it.
This is my latest theory-- I think Summer was in the WPP before she met JM and that is why she was so private (home births, home school). She was in hiding and she was looking into Mexico (passports and language) knowing that whoever she was hiding from was looking for her. Then on the 4th she found out they were very close to finding her and the whole family left quickly and unexpectedly. The McStay family (mom and MM) were told what was happening and where they were going and then MM filled in PM after some time. MM and mom have to pretend not to know because the family is in real danger and they don't want them found.
They are not in witness protection. The family is told to not draw attention to their missing family members when someone is placed in protection and let's face it- Witness protection is a fantasy in most districts.
I agree. It's very unlikely that they are in WWP. WWP is not all that common. It's an expensive program for the government. And there really is nothing to indicate that either Summer or Joseph were involved in any kind of activity that would lead to WWP any way.
The problem with the theory that Summer was in the WPP is that her family is known to us. In cases of WPP, one big give away is that no immediate family, other than spouse and children, is known.
Mr. Baker, I guess I'm squeaking in under the wire here, but, having followed this case and this blog for some time, I have the following thoughts for your and everyone else's input:
1. Why is the fact that the house was put up for sale all but right after they bought it never talked about? They bought it in November 2009 for $330,000, and put it up for sale almost immediately thereafter for $289,000. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3473-Avocado-Vista-Ln-Fallbrook-CA-92028/16573114_zpid/ The for-sale sign is seen in your photo of the house right after they disappeared. To me, this would indicate some momentous happening in their lives at that time. But, maybe I'm missing something. 2. Has anyone heard about what happened to the painter who was supposed to originally be painting the interior, but just sort of disappeared, leaving McGyver to try to finish the job? 3. When LE entered the home, there were no clothes nor shoes to be found, except for two pairs of very high heels and fur coats. What happened to their clothes? Did they scoop everything up as they left, pile it into the Trooper, and take off to parts unknown until the car was found days later at the border, presumably with no clothes in it? Did the family remove the clothes?
I so want to think that they are all fine, living somewhere. But, I don't.
I agree. I think they met with foul play and I think it happened in the States. I wondered about that painter too--but there are also neighbors. Was there someone shady living near by? Because this case has never been given the examination given to a crime scene, there is a lot of evidence lost. Another question I had was why does Summer phoned Joseph from their land-line, yet a short time later there are texts between the two? Joseph is driving at this time--speaking on phone would be easier. I don't know if he had a hand-free device. But why change to texting?
Another poster also commented about the house being for sale right after purchase, and that was the first I ever heard of it. I don't know what to make of it either. If they did that before renovations were complete, they obviously weren't planning on staying in Fallbrook long-term. Would love to hear others thoughts.
As to the disappeared painter, I never thought it had much to do with the family's disappearance. JMO.
I also wondered about the clothes/shoes. It was said that their clothing was in disarray on the floor, but was that because they may have pulled them off the hangers in their haste to leave, or did they just live in that disorganized fashion?
The house being up for sale does add another piece to my theory that they left willingly.
When I followed the link that was to lead to the house being for sale, it took me to a sale that occurred in 2011--was the house on the market all that time? I thought I read somewhere that the bank foreclosed on the mortgage...
The bank eventually did foreclose after their disappearance. You need to scroll down to "Price History" and click on "More." There you will see how many times the house was listed and unlisted. According to Rick's book, the McStays' idea was to remodel and sell again in a couple of years, which is pretty much a norm. Why would you launch into extensive renovations and then put the place up for sale, at a considerably lesser amount than you paid for it, as soon as you moved in? It doesn't make sense.
I could be wrong, but the way I read the sales history is that there may have been an issue with the bank or some kind of error. Because the price is identical to what the foreclosure price had been, before, I guess the McStays entered a little bit of a bidding war.
I don't think they were trying to sell the house. Both McStays had their real estate licenses--so who knows.
The problem with a disappearance, as opposed to a death, is that unless the deceased gave someone power of attorney, technically no one is allowed to touch the assets of the deceased.
I am taking a guess that, as the McStays were missing mortgage payments, the bank began the process of foreclosure--or perhaps the family was attempting to salvage the investment the McStays had made in the property.
The disappearance of an entire family makes it very difficult for anyone, not granted legal permission, to handle the finance around, loans, etc.
Most murders are mundane, in that, there is no grand plot. This disappearance is odd, but most likely what happened isn't nearly as exciting as an episode of CSI. This could easily have been an altercation that once started, dominoes into the entire family losing their lives.
The problem with a disappearance, as opposed to a death, is that unless the deceased gave someone power of attorney, technically no one is allowed to touch the assets of the deceased.
I am taking a guess that, as the McStays were missing mortgage payments, the bank began the process of foreclosure--or perhaps the family was attempting to salvage the investment the McStays had made in the property.
The disappearance of an entire family makes it very difficult for anyone, not granted legal permission, to handle the finance around, loans, etc.
If the McStays were killed, the killer would have to be:
Someone who could get close enough to Summer & Joey to gain entry into their home; or someone the McStays would willing go to. As in they were lured somewhere, which is why the house doesn't show signs of any type of altercation.
They would have to be willing to harm an entire family, including two small children.
They would have to have been well organized or simply have access to a place where the bodies aren't likely to be found.
They would have to have some kind of motive for doing all this.
If this were an accident, and some altercation occurred, then motive is not as important. But if there is any type of pre-meditation involved, something triggered all this.
I realize I'm rehashing old info., already explored, but I think the focus should be on what would cause someone to go to these lengths?
And this person or persons, does not have to be all that close to the family. There could be someone who thought they would gain access to a small fortune, and were wrong.
It's possible there was mistaken identity. Who lived in the house prior to the Mc Stays living there?
I keep thinking of the O'Hairs, and how for years everyone thought they'd gone off with a small fortune, when a disgruntled former employee actually abducted and killed them.
I really think the most likely scenario is that someone thought there would be something to gain in an abduction--maybe no one was supposed to be hurt--and the McStays are not all that far from home.
I just read the book basically overnight in almost one sitting and here's what I think...that the family fled on getting some tip that feds were after Summer for illegal mortgage scam and Joe for something covert going on under cover of his business, possibly even the 2 operations linked in some form of white collar criminal network. That they fled but couldn't show any evidence of accessing bank accounts or credit cards so as not to be traced...so Mike and Dan capitalized on this, making a deal with Joe to access the funds and funnel them to him on the down low for giving them a cut of the action, probably a big cut. And this may be still ongoing. And Mike is probably lining Patrick's pockets with some of it to keep him quiet and playing the unknowing semi-demented old dad and look the other way. The family is probably in Mexico where Joe+Summer have formed some small hippie farmer business that is discreet and/or even more scams under fake names and unknown IPOs. Mike + Dan might also be in cahoots on that too. And lastly that law enforcement has painted this public picture of declaring it homicide to cover the fact that they are really investigating this financial crimes ring involving not only the McStays but many characters, including family. They are giving the public impression of treating it as an almost cold homicide case, while covertly following any and all signs of this underground scam network hoping for an eventual massive multi-party bust which perhaps might also involve some bigger corporate players.
I could of written this, as I have thought this is what could have happened. Everyone has their role. MM and MOM pretend they know nothing and are happy with what LE has done. Summers family role (they too know what happened) is to be to upset to go public and just hide in the background. Patrick (not sure if he knew right away) now knows where they are. His role is to get everyones focus on LE supposedly not doing their job, and RB screwing everything up, and basically come across like a victim. They all secretly wish everyone that follows this case would just go away.
Well you've got an interesting plot for a novel there, but this is rarely the way it ever works in real life. Most murders are simple in motive, perhaps complicated in execution and cover-up, but never involve so many players.
More likely than not the McStays were killed by no more than two perps--who may have not intended to kill them at all.
So many more people know about this case because of your book. If some crime has been committed more people would be aware and watching others for a culprit's actions/slip-up. We can only keep hoping for their safe return.
Rick, I have just started to read your book. Is it possible that SM was poisoning JM with something like anti-freeze, drugs or something? What did happen about the big order that EIP got a few days before they disappeared? Is it possible that JM went off to fulfill it and was sick of MM scrounging for money all the time?
We need a public forum to discuss this case. Websleuths has the McStay information in a private place where the public can't see it. Justice Quest is completely dead since certain members were banned for using links to Rick's blog. The McStays and their friends, Jason Parmelee and Debbie Erp, interfere with the case. The public needs to hear the truth about the missing McStays.
WS put the thread in what they call the "Parking Lot" which means only members can see, read and post. They did this for liability sake so all you have to do is join WS and you can participate. It is easy and I recommend it. JQ? Not so much.
In my opinion, the blog would have to be monitored in some way. I have seen blogs where spammers drop link after link with worthless content. I question whether we would want harassing or inappropriate comments lingering for others to see. I have read some inflammatory comments that I would just as soon not have wasted my time reading, too. However, I agree that one would be helpful.
Any blog or board about this case needs to be monitored 24/7. There are just some people who have no conscience and don't care what they post, even when asked nicely to refrain. I guess it is a full-time job for the mods at WS just to police their threads.
The following is a statement issued by the San Diego Sheriff's Department, Homicide Unit, today, April 9, 2013.
SAN DIEGO - "The case of the missing McStay family from Fallbrook has been investigated by the San Diego County Sheriff's Department since they were reported missing in February 2010.
Over the last three years, the Sheriff's Department has conducted an exhaustive missing person investigation in an attempt to locate the family. Hundreds of tips have been investigated without success. Since the case was initiated, we have worked closely with the San Diego Division of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), as well as other law enforcement agencies. The consensus is the family, in all likelihood, traveled into Mexico of their own free will. There has been no contact or communication Advertisement
[ Pala Mesa Resort ] from them since February of 2010.
Due to the fact that the family is believed to be out of the country, and because minor children are involved, the primary investigative responsibility for the case is being transferred to the FBI. The FBI is the most appropriate law enforcement agency to continue the investigation since they have significant experience and investigative assets in foreign countries. The Sheriff's Department will continue participating in the investigation in a supporting role.
Anyone with information about this incident is asked to call Crime Stoppers at (888) 580-8477. You can remain anonymous and be eligible for up to a $1,000 reward for information leading to the resolution of the case."
This statement was released by Lt. Glenn Giannantonio, San Diego Sheriff's Homicide Detail (858) 974-2321.
Ok, you are right about fairness, so I have established a new policy here. If you want to bash someone by name, you must post with your given name. It is not fair to the bashed to not know who is attacking them. I will be forced to delete any post that does not conform.
I have to agree with that. If any bashing or accusations are to be made, the person who is on the receiving end has a right to know their accuser and perhaps defend themselves. Even if they are missing.
I also have been reading and following this family's story from the beginning, I find it very perplexing as well. I really hope they are all together alive and well somewhere.
I'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I wonder if the McStay's really officially "bought" or owned their new house. I looked up the sales history of the house on Redfin and Zillow and I found something very interesting on the sales history of the house.
On Zillow.com, it shows the house was sold on Nov. 17, 2009 for $330K (the McStay's purchase?) and then in the SAME month on Nov. 25, 2009, it was listed FOR SALE AGAIN for $289K.
It was still for sale in Dec 2009 before they disappeared and most interesting, is that it was taken OFF and then back ON the market on Feb 26, 2010, a couple of weeks after the family disappeared.
It continued to go up for sale and taken off again March 2010 and June 2010, finally being foreclosed in July 2011.
If this has already been discussed, I apologize, maybe you can update me.....but if not, am I the only one who finds it bizarre that their house went up for sale again the same month that they moved in? And was on and off the market up until they disappeared? Here's the link:
This is a reply to Anonymous on April 13 at 12:13 A.M. regarding the sale history of the McStays' home. I had posted that very same question earlier on March 30 at 6:54 PM. There are several replies, one which offers the theory of a "bidding war," which I don't quite understand. It appears to me, as it does to you, that they put that house up for sale almost as soon as they moved in. But, again, maybe we're missing something.
Real Estate listings on the internet are notoriously wrong. I know. I buy and sell. So the fact that online a home is listed as being for sale, doesn't mean it is or was. I looked at that history, and though I can't say for certain--the listing price after the McStays first bought, would indicate that a mistake was made. The Foreclosure prices was something like 298k the McStays bought for 330 (which indicates that there was a bidding war) as in, the price bought at was higher than that listed. No one offers more for a house than listing price, unless there are other offers being made.
The fact that just after they bought the house the internet shows that it again was listed, doesn't mean anything--this happens all the time. I've looked at houses often, that had already been sold, but the internet presented them as still on the market. And the numbers match too perfectly. If the McStays paid 330k and there had been other offers, why not start your listing price there? Or higher. And the sale price was exactly the same as it had been when the bank listed.
No one close to the case has EVER said that the McStays were about to sell their house.
The later sales activity occurs after their disappearance--and this was no doubt due to a lapse in their mortgage payments being made.
Thanks for the replies..I found and read the entries from March 30th.....but I wouldn't totally dismiss the sales history on Zillow.com. I have bought and sold 2 homes in the past 5 years and Zillow.com is totally accurate for my sales history, as well as some of my relatives homes I have looked up on Zillow.
Who listed the house for sale 22 days after they disappeared?? Coincidence or bad info on Zillow.com? Hard to believe.
Supposedly Summer was getting back into real estate and had her RE license, maybe she was behind all the on/off the market activity, also supporting some people's theory that they never intended to live in the house long, for whatever reason, but ended up leaving much sooner than they planned.
Summer was never happy about this home and its location. Maybe Summer listed the house for less than purchase price in an effort to get rid of it. It makes perfect sense. The home was listed through a qualified real estate company, San Diego Realty, Inc. I don't believe Zillow would "create" a listing that didn't exist. From Mr. Baker's book we know Summer and Joey had a troubled relationship. Perhaps this issue was a part of it.
isint that realty company owned by their friends, and they use to workf for and summer was going to work their again? something if you read between the lines
The four days (Thursday evening to Monday evening) when not only the McStays were missing, but there vehicle was as well, is the most mystifying piece to this case--no matter what the theory around their disappearance is.
If they left of their own accord, and that is them on tape crossing the border, where were they for four days? How is it that no one saw them?
If they were abducted or harmed, why did the perpetrator wait four days to place their car near the border. Was time being bought? As in, whoever did this knew that the real investigation into the McStays would only happen once their abandoned Trooper was found?
I just don't get how, if they were alive between Feb 4 and Feb 8, no one saw them.
Tell me this cannot be accurate? it is to obvious! Homeschooling in new mexico is one of the easiest states to register for.
www.mylife.com/c-75676047
Places Lived
Haleiwa, HI McMinnville, OR
About Kenneth Aranda
Kenneth Andrews Aranda was born in 1978. Kenneth currently lives in Haleiwa, Hawaii. Before that, Kenneth lived in Haleiwa, HI in 2012. Before that, Kenneth lived in McMinnville, OR in 2009.
Kenneth Andrews Aranda is related to Blanche Aranda, Kenneth Andrews Aranda is also related to Summer Aranda, who is 46 years old and lives in Albuquerque, NM.
Summer Aranda, 46
Albuquerque, NM
URL
www.mylife.com/summeraran93222su
Gender
Female
Places Lived
Laguna Hills, CA,
About Summer Aranda
Summer Aranda was born in 1966. Summer currently lives in Albuquerque, New Mexico
Rick,can you repost the summer aranda post up under the astrology thread, as the conversation seems to be going on there. I would like to see what people have to say about this. Thanks in advance
I don't know why anyone is interested in crazy random name matches. The answer to this mystery is in the 4 days from the point at which the McStays footprint vanishes, to the time their Trooper is found. Reveal that mystery, this entire mystery will be solved.
Rick is there a way (is your blog set up to do this) that a person can sign up to get notifications to my email, everytime you and/or someone else makes a post on your blog? ( I look here often, but don't want to miss any posts) I have looked, and don't see anyway to do that. Carol
ReplyDeleteMe again...just thought I would let you know... I found and signed up to get posts delivered to my email. Don't know why i did'nt see the option before! lol Maybe cause my brain and eyesight are getting fried from so much research ; ) Carol
DeleteRick, Thanks for writing this book. Every few months, I had been going online to see if anything new came up on the McStay case. I was excited when I found this blog and saw you had published your book. I immediately ordered it and read the whole thing in one sitting.
ReplyDeleteJust my 2 cents, the most plausible theory to me, is they took off out of fear of retaliation for the false child abuse charges.
The family disappeared 2/4 and the investigation concluded "the first week of February." I believe SM may have opened a letter on 2/4, indicating the investigation was over, or about the be over. She calls JM in a panic, and once he arrives home, they start to put a plan in motion to leave.
Summer's husband and family were her WHOLE WORLD--she was not gonna take any chances on losing her kids. This also explains the search for Mexico on their computer. They were planning for the worst.
SG
I thought the only passport was Joey's. Summer's was expired and the children didn't have any. Somebody did a search on the McStay computer for information about going to Mexico with children without passports. Authorities said they found e-mails from Joseph and Summer asking about passport information and entry into Mexico before February 4.
ReplyDeleteHello, I am new to this board. I have read the book No Goodbyes. I have a question about passports. I have watched a couple of shows that were aired on the McStays, there was a point in time where the investigator had said that he had not found any passports in the home. This was early in the investigation. It has been three years now. Have the passports ever been found? Susan was in the house what seem to be for cleaning things out of the house and getting rid of belongings. Would she have found passports? Would she say if she had? Any news on this?
ReplyDeleteThanks Rick for doing this (the comment dilemma)
ReplyDeleteCarol
Hi Rick,
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on writing a gripping account of this most bizarre disappearance. I have been following the case since the onset and I am among the addicted; thoughts and theories on my mind almost daily. What was not mentioned in your book was the so called strange ringing at the door of the Mcstay's house one night about a week before their disappearance. Somewhere I had read that Summer was on the phone and remarked to whom ever was on the other end that someone was at their door. I am wondering if in fact that was the case, perhaps that individual who I believe Joey let in was the person who helped to orchestrate the plan. For I really believe that a plan had been in the making for a while. It began with Summer, this complex and quirky woman with a need for control and obvious anger issues. I do not believe however that she was capable of killing Joey, but I do think she was stressing him out to the point that it was affecting his health. I think that Summer realized the damage and havoc she was creating on his emotions and thus the request for the anger medication. She was rational enough and wanted to save her marriage, so she requested a holistic approach in desperation. In the weeks before their disappearance, I believe that she became totally fed up with the house, her extended family, and their new life style. Summer probably presented all her despair to Joey and perhaps offered him an ultimatum," I am leaving with the kids if we don't get away from our messy life!" Joey, a giver and nurturer, gave in and thus began a plan to exit. Could they have accomplished such a feat alone? IMPOSSIBLE! Perhaps that late night visitor helped in their escape. Nothing in the facts thus far, make me believe that they feared for their lives. Everything was staged and I agree with those that believe Joey's mother and brother knew what was about to go down. When Joey pulled over and told his mom about another bout with dizziness, I think he was telling her that he just couldn't take the stress living with a very angry and distressed wife. Another thought occurred to me, that perhaps the unidentified Craigs list men were also paid off to help implement the plan. Just rambling, but who knows? The sighting in North Carolina seems very credible and I do not believe that any member of this family is deceased. Mike and his mother are hiding a lot. Mom came into the home not because of knowing of a murder, but rather because she wanted to make sure that no evidence in the house remained that could lead investigators to find her family. As far as the missing futon cover, it could have been quickly taken by the Mcstays the night they left.(possibly to throw some light articles of clothing in). Joey and Summer are living a nomadic life, their only stress now being to remain camouflaged. They are out there. They will be found. Just one little slip. So, let's all be vigilant.
Thanks for all your dedication and throwing some interesting theories out there.
I agree with a lot of what you say. I think SM was fed up with her life too, and she found the opportunity to escape that life when they were facing retaliation from the false child abuse charges. There was her chance to convince JM to run.
DeleteSG
Hi Rick,
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting the thoughts of two of the New Team members earlier this morning. What happened to the postings? There was a lot of food for thought and i was interested to come back and re-read those thoughts again (as well as hoping to read any new postings). It was great that you seemed to share the info right away. Respectfully, may i ask if you will continue to post the team members thoughts? Thanks for all your work on this.
Rick, I enjoyed the book. Job well done. My only small complaint is that the writing itself wasn't fantastic. It was passable, however, and that in and of itself is a feat - I've written a book (on a technical topic) and it's no picnic. It deserves to sell well if for no other reason that you actually bothered to tackle a difficult and intriguing story in a completely competent manner.
ReplyDeleteA few questions:
(1) I don't believe it was specifically mentioned in the book (although maybe I missed it) but, what prevented Joseph's dad from coming out to California when the disappearance was finally confirmed? I thought you alluded to some legal issue at some point in the book but I never found out what it was.
(2) Of the three sightings mentioned in the book, what probability would you place on each of them actually having been the McStays? I realize this requires a lot of intuition and gut feeling, but I'm curious... it seemed like the Merida sighting was well-grounded.
(3) Based on what you know now - after the book has been published - what is your best guess as to what happened to the family and where they are now?
Thanks and, again, good job.
Hello, just finished the book downloaded on my kindle....I enjoyed it thoroughly however I was disappointed the last page didn't end with "and they were all found safe and happy the end" lol
ReplyDeleteNow I am even more curious unsettled obsessed etc As a mom of two little girls my heart thoughts prayers are with the boys...two innocent children. what does their future hold? will they be able to grow up and have happy normal life? How hard it must be for them to grow up in hiding without any grandparents aunts uncles cousins.....no support system...I think they are alive, I have to think this, the alternative is to heart wrenching
Anyway, quick question, I sensed in the book that you really are not a fan of summer and one plausible theory is she "offed" Joseph. First do you think she could have been poisoning him slowly maybe with large amounts of homeopathic meds? Second are their ANY redeeming qualities about this women?
Thx and keep up the noble cause!!
After reading your book and some of the blog postings I have found a few issues that are MORE puzzling than the rest. First, the fact that Summer has bi-polar/BPD and may have been cheating on Joey. I was in a relationship with a woman with the same issues and in my experience they always have a "backup plan" in the form of another man (Summer didn't leave her ex until she "had" Joey). I have no doubt that she would have had a hook in someone, and may have already reeled him in. People with this disorder cannot be alone. If there was another man he would have had money and he would have done anything to be with her (i.e. help her get rid of a body and disappear so they could be together). Another issue is the missing futon cover...seems like the perfect thing to wrap up a body in for transport and dumping. Being an investigator myself, the money transfers are ALARMING. Usually following the money trail will lead to whomever had a hand in committing the crime. This would lead me to believe that either DK or MM was the other guy in Summer's life however I don't believe this. I think that they both took the money once they realized that the family was gone. Perhaps not knowing that they weren't coming back anytime soon, but instead just because they could and didn't care what (if any) repercussions would come upon Joey's return. They both seemed to want more and more money from him up until his disappearance. These are some thoughts for now. I'm going to re read the book. I hope i'm wrong and they are all alive somewhere, happy and healthy. However if something terrible did happen to Joey by Summer (i.e. poisoning) then the two boys need to be found and spared from living a life on the run with a mentally unstable mother. -LMC
ReplyDeleteI don’t mean to harp on you but I really think you are taking unsubstantiated claims as facts. Summer being bi-polar/BPD is NOT a fact, it is just a suggestion by the author, which I think is very irresponsible considering that he is NOT a mental health professional. While I applaud RB for his work, he does not have the professional ability to access whether or not someone he’s NEVER even met has either disorder. Secondly, are you a mental health professional? Do you have any factual information stating that “people with this disorder cannot be alone”? If not, please don’t go around making statements like that and spreading information that is INCORRECT. The same goes for Summer’s “alleged” affair. RB mentions ONCE in the book that a black corvette MAY have been seen at the McStay house during the day and somehow that means Summer was cheating on her husband? People need to stop and pay attention to what is fact and what has been written. I read the book several times and about 90% of RB claims have no evidence to back them up or they came from “people who did not want to be identified” which means there is no way for us to know if what they said is even true. While I don’t think Summer was an angel, I don’t think she deserves this info being spread about her when no one even knows if it is true. How would you feel if this was your family member and thousands of people who didn’t know her posted stuff like she was bi-polar/BPD and unfaithful in her marriage. Probably not very good. I’m defending Summer because I know her or her family, I just feel she is unfairly being portrayed by people who don’t know her or have evidence to back up their claims and I think it needs to stop.
DeleteI watched a documentary about this missing family just 15 minutes ago on Investigation Discovery, and I was so curious to discover more, so I got on the internet to see, and realised today is the day of the book releasing(and the 3rd anniversary,, I can't believe it! )
ReplyDeleteWell, I'm not from the USA, and I'd really like to read the book, I became obsessed with the case. My question is: Is the book available in Europe?
Also, I've noticed that Summer's sister (Tracy, is it? ) is kinda mysterious... Why didn't she mention before that her sister changed name(several times!) ? She talked about it only after the police has revealed it already. Her answer was simply: ''Summer is just Summer...''
I think the whole family took part in this dissappearance, and I would really love to read the book for some new facts, because the only report about them is that short (45 min or less) documentary and I feel I missed most of it.
No matter what your intentions are of writing the book, the McStay family should be intelligent enough to realize that ALL press on this helps. Keeps it in the public's eye and mind. Whether it be Nancy Grace yelling about it, or a radio personality writing about it, the family should embrace the publicity. Isn't everyone looking for the same outcome? That they will be found?
ReplyDeleteI hope your book stirs things up.
Pat in NJ
Rick--what do you make of Joey's "illness?" Did he get a diagnosis from the hospital? Was Summer drugging him to hide what she was up to? Do you think it's possible that she and Joey's brother colluded on anything--like stealing money--and this somehow ended very badly for the family?
ReplyDeleteI find it so fascinating that Joseph is always described as a wonderful, caring and sweet guy (and I believe he was) and that he was married to a con! It's amazing how many posters try to frame having multiple aliases as "normal" and not connected to crime. "Summer" was 10 years older than she told Joey, and she operated under a large number of aliases. Did Joey just not know about Summer (and his brother) being dishonest? Do you know where she picked up the "Martinelli" moniker? I'm not sure I can put together in my mind that Summer killed Joey, but I do know that she was bad news, and at the very least, she engaged in fraud. Coupled with the brother stealing all Joey's money while the family was "on an extended weekend"--it seems likely that Summer and Mark had a lot in common.
Great work! I enjoyed reading it.
I'm so happy I stumbled across this site. Had no idea anyone was writing a book about the McStays! I'll definitely be ordering it. What a weird story, anyways.. I swear since the first time I saw them on tv, Ive been obsessed -- I need to know what happened to them! It bothers me. Some nights I (still) think about this family before I go to sleep, just going over all the possibilities as to their whereabouts. I check every week to see if they've turned up. Nothing makes sense to me though.. I constantly feel as though there's a whole part to the story which I've never heard, something that's missing.. I guess that's what you'll be uncovering? Can't wait!
ReplyDeleteI just listened to the WSJS interview. Wow!
ReplyDeleteYou really believe that Summer killed Joseph and that Mike was at the house the night it happened.
Your theory is a far cry from what many others honestly believe happened. Most believe that the entire family went into hiding or that the entire family was harmed by someone. Most people have been told and believe that Mike had nothing to do with his brother's disappearance and that he came in exactly when he said he did, ten days or so into this, and then later, realizing his brother's bank accounts were being foraged, took it upon himself and had everything blocked, closed, or switched over to his name until his brother and family were found? What proof is there to the contrary?
For me, yours would be the worst scenario possible. It's the ultimate betrayal of Joseph who we have all become so fond of.
I'm just afraid for the entire McStay family after hearing this radio interview.
Hello Rick, I am one of the former neighbors who spoke with you in 2011. I have since moved to TX, much better business climate here. Anyway, I have been following your page here from the beginning and I just wanted to make one comment for those who think they know what happened and do not. I lived very close to the McStay family and as I told you, never even met them. They were not sociable to me or the other neighbors. They came and went very fast and other than their barking dogs, I would not have even known they were ever gone. No one knows what happened, except the investigators and it is pretty silly for many who have commented here and on the Find the McStay sites to claim they do. Maybe they don't understand how silly they look or maybe they don't care. I know that your book has not solved the case but I am still going to buy it because i will always wonder what happened, even though I now live 1300 miles away.
ReplyDeleteVery intriguing. Rick you have indicated you believe Summer was involved in some way with Joseph's disappearance/ possible demise and then you suggest his brother Michael is complicit as well. I find this interesting because from all I have read on this case, I do not think Michael was a fan of Summer's and vice versa so the thought that both of them could be simultaneously involved is mind-blowing. I look forward to the book for more explanation on this!
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, let me congratulate you on your excellent site. On each visit I learn something new, and it is appreciated. Then, I would like to share with you - but surely you've read this before - a theory I read recently, well, part of this theory because I want to add something, and I hope that my speculations are wrong. Perhaps you’ll share your views on the matter.
ReplyDeleteI read that maybe Summer may have been involved or had some connections with a prostitution ring - maybe the fur coats and extremely high heels direct to this speculations -that her husband was probably unaware of... Then one day the husband found her hands in the dough and suddenly she with the assistance of "someone" (who also was on Summer’s side) forced Joseph to leave the house to some remote location and there ... made him disappear. Then, Summer and the kids and that "someone" went into hiding.
And that “someone” is very well known to Mike ...
I can not understand that a family of four disappears and no family member notify the authorities until seven days later. Perhaps this was done to allow enough time for traces and such disappear…
Another aspect that I personally find curious is the physical appearance of the children and the husband (untidy and poorly maintained), and the messy visual effect of the furniture; this show a high degree of disorder. Clutter is an indication that something is not right in the mind or in someone's life. Another thing, I read that the house was purchased sometime in November, then why all the beds and sheets were as if the family had not the slightest intention of remaining there. As if there was a hidden plan to disappear sooner or later; a double-family agenda; parallel plans.
Well I hope to receive your feedback. Oh, by the way, I have already ordered your book.
Rick... I would love to listen to the radio interview you did with Mike, but I can't seem to find it anywhere! Can u please give directions to find/listen to it, if that is an option somewhere. Thanks Carol
ReplyDeleteI've been looking for the interview too and would love to listen to it also!
DeleteRick, you've done an amazing job bringing light to this case. I'm based in Western Australia and one day I was swimming at a beach and noticed a man who looked very similar to Joey. I doubt it was him -otherwise I would have reported the sighting- and I didn't see who the man was with, but it did make me think about the possibility of them being here, perhaps? As another commenter mentioned there is not much known about the case here, so it could be a perfect place to hide for them really. Basically, what I am trying to say is that the publicity of this book really ought to be bringing more much needed international awareness to the case. Keep up the good work and let's find those precious little boys. :)
I'm surprised so many people think one may have murdered the other.
ReplyDeleteLet's take SM, for example: Summer was angry on 2/4. She tried to purchase a home remedy called ANGER that day. We've seen emails where she comes across as very vicious and cold. Assuming SM killed JM, why would MM and the mother be behaving so suspiciously (delaying reporting the family missing, taking their computer, cleaning up the potential crime scene.) They WOULD NOT cover for her, based on their strained relationship, and they love JM. Plus, there's no blood evidence or any evidence of a fight to the death in the home. Joey was not well, but I doubt SM could overpower him and kill him in the home. She wanted Joey to herself. She wanted Joey distanced from his son, and his family. I read she once told JM's mom--"you're not one of the four". She needed and wanted him, to the exclusion of all others. He was very important to her.
JM killing SM is also unbelievable. He drives home, after what seemed to be pretty normal day, and kills her? With his kids in the house? Kind, laid-back people (as JM was described as)don't just do that one day, no matter how mad they get or how much they argue. Even if she tried to strike him in anger, let's say, I highly doubt he'd subdue her and lash back to the point of her death.
So after this presumed muder: SM carries JM's body (no easy task)to the car and drives off unseen with him & the kids? She didn't have help--no other cars were seen by their house at that time. Or JM waits til dark to sneak SM's body in the back of the car behind where the kids are strapped in also seems unlikely.
The computer search for Mexico & purchase of Spanish language software shows they were planning to leave. The haste with which they left shows they felt an immediate threat.
What was the threat? My belief is SM feared retaliation from the false abuse stories & convinced JM to run. The timing of the ending of the investigation and their departure is too coincidental. We know no charges came about, but that doesn't mean the stepdad would just forget about she'd/they'd done. The mother emailed JM to tell him no charges came about. She thought he might've left because of it.
I'm certain they're out there, alive and well.
There are "normal" families killing family members every single day in the news. Just yesterday, a grandmother shot her two small grandchildren and then herself. Last week a French woman killed her entirely and 17 year old children. And that's just in the last week... Not to mention the ones that didn't make the news. And besides that, as we've all read, things weren't entirely peachy keen behind the closed doors of the McStay home. From a mental health perspective, if Summer truly had Borderline Personality Disorder, there is no telling what chaos may have transpired in that home. BPD is enough to drive a sane person crazy. Not to mention that one of the diagnostic criteria for BPD is that you go back and forth between highly valuing a person and then hating them the next for some "imagined slight."
ReplyDeleteAgreed, "normal" people kill every day. We only hear about the most sensational stories. But look at the big picture, and all that we know, and there's no evidence of a murder in the home or the car. We can analyze both SM & JM for days, but what other credible evidence is there that one is dead at the others hand?
DeleteSG
Correction: A French woman killed her 9,11,and 17 year old children. Stupid auto correct.
ReplyDeleteRick thanks for the book im so desperate to get.Did the family let u know about the missing futon cover or u worked it out i think a cover missing shows some sort of deception. Its such a mystery nobody in Australia that i speak to knows about it but im leting them know to read u book.Keep up the good work
ReplyDeleteSG, have you read the book? It would seem Joey's mom scrubbed away any potential evidence.... And if you read the book, you see that Summer could be a vicious piece of work. And... The possibility that she had Borderline Personality Disorder would explain a lot (I'm a mental health professional.... But do your own reading on BPD). Not saying there's evidence.... Everything is just speculation, but it does seem she could be capable. However, after reading the book, I'm leaning towards thinking DK and MM were partners in crime and the whole family is dead. While Summer may have had the capacity to have killed Joseph, her anger doesn't automatically make her a killer. I think she's innocent, too. - KN-
ReplyDeleteYes, I read the book. I'm just not entirely buying that SM was killed, although the clean up and the mothers comment (SM won't need that where she is)are certainly ominous.
DeleteThe Mexico computer search, and spanish language software purchase carry more weight with me. I think, and my opinion often changes with this case, they left voluntarily for Mexico.
SG
Rick have you been contacted by 48 Hours since they are currently interviewing family members for an upcoming show? I find it hard to believe your book would not be mentioned.
ReplyDeleteI want to know more about Summer's biological father. Where is he? What does he do for a living? Has he ever showed any interest in his daughter missing even though summer did'nt want to have anything to do with him?
ReplyDeleteSummer was extremely upset over Joey snooping and trying to find her father (evident by the email she wrote to Joey that is in Ricks book.
There are a few ways u could look at this.... If I was Summer and did'nt want contact with my father and my boyfriend kept bringing it up and trying to find him, after I had told him to "stop it" That would really pissing me off. But, it sounds like more then that she just doesent want contact with him. It sounds like she is trying to hide something. She writes "My family does not concern you what so ever." Who says that...to someone that they are about to marry!!!??? On the other hand..as Dr. Phil would say " people that have nothing to hide, hide nothing." For a person to snoop into a loved ones lives, they have reason too. (there gut instinct says something doesent feel right..there seem to be secrets here.) I am thinking that is why Joey kept snooping. Sooo was Summer's father involved in some illegal activity?Does Summer and her family FEAR her Father for some reason? But still...why not share this was your soon to be husband!? Why so secretive? It seems like Summer had a LOT of secrets! Carol
Rick, I read somewhere you are writing a follow-up. Can you tell us what kind of new info you have?
ReplyDeleteI will also buy that book immediately, read it in one sitting, and start blogging about it! ;)
SG
The picture of the family crossing into Mexico included in Rick's book is the best quality picture I've seen yet. If you look closely, the person walking in front is holding the hand of a child. If you look over the other shoulder, you see what seems to be a baby's head. Then the person behind that person is holding the hand of what would be a third child. This image convinced me this is NOT the McStay family. I am positive the family we see had three children. I wish families crossing the border that day would hear about this case and step forward if that's their family.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone else see this third child??
Yes, that could possibly be a third child, or maybe a shadow.
DeleteI haven't made up my mind whether or not I think that's the McStay's. Like many have said, and I agree, it certainly doesn't look like JM.
SG
To the person who thinks it would have been challenging for Summer to carry Josephs body....I believe she simply would have put the futon cover on the floor, rolled him onto it, and dragged it to the car. Who knows what she did to get it in the car? She could have offered money to Kavanaugh to help her... Maybe that's why he thought he had the right to drain the account and why money was left behind... And where he got the passwords. We know he was motivated by greed and seemingly has no moral compass! He didn't care for Joseph, either.
ReplyDeleteJust playing devil's advocate here--but would you drag a body out to your car at roughly 7:45 p.m. in a suburban neighborhood? If SM killed JM, I would think she'd want to wait until after midnight to avoid being seen. And we only saw one car leaving the driveway and no video of another. Not saying it's not possible, just working it out in my head.
DeleteRemember how strangely MM and the mom behaved after the family disappeared? This leads me to believe that if anyone is dead, it's SM. Because it doesn't seem likely they'd cover for her killing JM.They may not know exactly where the family is, but I believe they know the circumstances of them leaving.
As for DK, I initially thought MM had DK help him access the accounts to funnel $ to JM, but I would think LE would be able to see where that money's going from MM's account. Now I think they both got greedy after seeing the family disappear and helped themselves. I've read about a secret bank account, so maybe that's where the family gets the money to survive on the run.
SG
I considered that same thing, SG...but the Isuzu was in the garage, of course....and then there wouldn't be drag marks in the dirt, either.
DeleteAs for MM and mom's behavior, I've thought a lot about that. It may not be that they know anything at all. Their strange behavior may reflect the fact that they robbed Joey's safe and his bank accounts, and they may really know nothing about the disappearance but instead we are seeing the shame they feel at taking their brother's money as soon as he went missing. (MM had asked for money on numerous occasions, as we read in the book, and I find it highly unlikely that Joseph kept the kind of cash in his wallet that he would "lend" to Mike.)
I, too, think it's more likely that Joseph killed Summer (Mike not reporting the disappearance for ELEVEN DAYS!? What kind of brother would do that? Seems super fishy to me! And lying to his dad about checking out the house? He probably very well didn't have to check out the house because he knew exactly what was going on...I still hold to the fact that in those four days before the car was found MM and JM were digging a grave together and making a "plan" and a "story" for the cops and the media...)
BUT, considering that Rick knows a lot more than we do, and he is searching for Summer, at this point I am going to go along with Rick and say she very well could have dragged that body to the car parked in the garage and headed for Bonsall because "what if" someone came by the house and found a dead Joseph? She had to HURRY and hide the evidence!
I agree about the secret bank account. SM couldn't very well get a job if she is in hiding, and MM didn't even know about that account, from what we know. She had to have stashed away a LOT of that dirty money she got from her mortgage scams!
Good point about the Isuzu being in the garage--I didn't think of that! And I agree that the mom's strange behavior might not be her covering up a murder. SM was volatile, but I don't think she'd kill JM. I posted above why I don't think either of them killed the other.
DeleteBut, if one thinks that SM killed JM, then how do we explain their leaving the home at 7:47 (as recorded on videotape) and JM having a 1 minute phone call @ 8:28? The book says we don't know that JM spoke to anyone, but I saw a program that said he had a normal conversation with a "business associate"? Of course, SM could've used his phone, but this raises some more questions as to who's telling the truth.
SG
SG, do we know for sure JM returned home from his business meeting in Rancho Cucamonga on the day of Thursday, Feb. 4? We know JM still wasn't home at 5:47 PM based on text messages between his and Summer's phones. We know the family vehicle departed the home at 7:47 PM. Did JM ever return to the home that day from work? Could have Summer taken the children to meet up with JM somewhere near Bonsall. JM's last outgoing call at 8:28 PM pinged a tower in Bonsall. Did JM make that last call to CM or did somebody else make that call using his phone?
DeleteSummer's cell phone received 8 text messages after Thursday, Feb. 4. Some of these messages were from McGyver McCargar and Dan Kavanaugh. Why were they texting Summer and not JM? Records indicate these text messages to Summer pinged the same cell tower as JM's outgoing phone call on the night of the disappearance. Others pinged a tower just across the river in this location. McCargar and Kavanaugh were in that area on Friday and Saturday based on the location of the pings.
Remember, JM wasn't feeling well on Feb. 4 based on a phone conversation with his mother. "Joe told me he wasn't feeling good that day. His equilibrium wasn't right and I felt something was wrong." It's hard to believe JM, not feeling well, would return home after a long day, to turn around and go back out so soon after arriving home. IMO, JM did not return home from work that day.
Rick, do you have any evidence to the contrary?
True, JM didn't feel well on 2/4, so we presume that they left abruptly that night because of something sudden and serious.
DeleteWe don't know for sure that JM came home, but he drove the Isuzu to his meeting, and it was seen on the tape leaving at 7:47, so we think he came home.
I'm interested to hear more about what you think happened if JM didn't didn't make it home. Thanks.
I even question if the video taken from the neighbors survelliance tape is REAL? I have just seen this on the "Disappearence" show. And THAT is clearly, a reanactment video. (in my opinion) Has anyone seen a video that actually looks REAL of the TROOPER pulling out of the driveway? BUT, then again.. a video "could" exist from the camera showing the trooper leaving, but it makes no sense that the rest of what the surviellance "may" have caught does not want to be release by the owner! Mike states in one place that the camera quit working at midnight. Hmmmmmmmm Something regarding this so called video clearly doesnt make sense, in more then one way! although there are lots of things in the case that dont make sense! lol ; ) IF they are in the WPP, (which I believe) you can't even trust ANY info that LE has put out there!!!!!
DeleteWhy has the owner at Justice Quest made a statement saying Mike had nothing to do with his brother's disappearance?
ReplyDeleteMaybe the owner has inside information.
DeleteWho or what is Justice Quest?
ReplyDeleteWho or what is Justice Quest?
ReplyDeleteThe statement was made by RiverSelah here:
http://www.justicequest.net/forums/showpost.php?p=2182158&postcount=1756
Unfortunately I cannot get that link to work :(
ReplyDeleteIt is not a clickable link. You can copy and paste into your browser.
ReplyDeleteHere is the text from the link.
Keep in mind though, how utterly foolish it is for "River" to make a statement that "He has nothing to do with this missing family," when she knows little about the case, the extended family, or much else related to this disappearance.
RiverSelah
RiverSelah~ Psalms 91
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,617
I've chatted with Mike McStay on FB about his missing brother- his heart is broken. I didn't realize how close he was to the boys, his brother and Summer until reading his posts.
He has nothing to do with this missing family. He just wants them found. Very nice man, he has a beautiful family of his own and is very respectful and kind when people throw him under the bus.
__________________
Bad spellers of the world Untie!
Justice Quest stopped any discussions about Rick and his book.
ReplyDeleteHi Rick,
ReplyDeleteI downloaded NO GOODBYES last night (I must give a shout-out to the guy at the Nook customer service hotline for being so patient with me). Loved it! Of course, now I have even more questions (comments and rants, too) about the case. There are so many twists and turns that almost any theory seems plausible to me right
now.
Definite Red Flags:
1. Summer's obvious emotional/mental issues. I have a sister-in-law who's bipolar and at one point while reading, I could've sworn you were describing my sister-in-law and not Summer.
2. Susan going crazy cleaning the kitchen. And then the crazy looting and selling of items from the house.
3. Mike McStay.
4. Dan Kavanaugh.
5. Loan Modification Scam.
6. Joseph's "funky" illness.
WHERE ARE THEY? WHAT HAPPENED? As usual, every time I learn new information about the case, my head just hurts. Between the McStay case, the Jamison Family case, and the imposter/Nicholas Barclay case, I want to hole up in a room and start some investigating of my own.
Thank you for writing this book.
Rick... Did you ever learn if Kavanaugh had a lie detector test performed on him? He seems the likeliest culprit.
ReplyDeleteCan't speak for anyone else but I've hit the burn-out point with this case. I truly thought that with the publication of the book, someone would come forward anonymously or not with some information. Then when Rick offered a second and higher reward I thought "alright NOW someone will talk". None of this has panned out and it's really a head-scratcher.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad that this book got the attention it did because at least a major network special will (hopefully) be done about it and if it were not for this book the case would have kept fading as it has for the last few years. I'm afraid the CBS coverage will produce the same results that the book and rewards did- nothing. Still, it is better to have had this in the spotlight even if for a short time than not at all.
Thank you Rick for the work you have done and for weathering the storm of negativity that has come from members of the McStay family and their cheerleaders.
If nothing comes from any of this at least you tried and at the end of the day that's what counts.
When there is a mystery like this it seems easy to place great importance on issues and circumstances that would otherwise be seen as prosaic and mundane. Most cases like this end up either being very intimate--as in someone the victim/victims know committed the crime--for reasons that may or may not make sense. But no one close to the McStays appears to have profited or held a grudge. Unless J's exwife had something going on.
ReplyDeleteOR; it's a complete freak, wrong time, wrong place scenario.
It's really possible that the McStays went out to run errands, encountered a bad situation--road rage, who knows? Family was hurt by someone with a record, afraid of exposure, and to get rid of witnesses someone buried them in the area where their phones were reported to ping. Then realizing that the McStay vehicle could be easily linked to the crime, placed it somewhere near the border to throw off the investigation.
If this is a crime, it doesn't appear to be for profit. All valuables remain--no car jacking etc. So whoever did this had personal reasons, either random or planned.
I don't believe that the McStays would stay in hiding for this long. But the children may have survived. There should be age-enhanced pictures produced.
For all we know the painter who was abruptly dismissed came back to get paid and something went down.
While Rick will deny it in his humility, he has shown us that he is a modern day hero. I admire your devotion and selflessness, Rick. Here is a link this week that brought you to mind....a hero whether you want the title or not.
ReplyDeletehttp://thestir.cafemom.com/in_the_news/152235/kidnapper_leaves_baby_on_strangers
Don't let the haters scare you away and destroy this "online fingerprint" of the McStay family case. You've come too far to just fade away. I'm afraid it is what some people desire, but those of us who support you want the exact opposite. Don't let them win.... Even if it means simply leaving this blog here so as to show them that you won't back down to "bullies."
Rick, please leave your blog up. and what about your other team members theories? Do we get to hear those? I hope so.
ReplyDeleteIf this were an episode of Law & Order the killer would be Joseph's ex-wife or someone associated with her. Who else really gains by the ENTIRE family vanishing? You have a first son being distanced from his father's life. A father who is just beginning to see financial success. A stepmother who expresses an exclusion of all those who came before.
ReplyDeleteThough it's not that much money now, perhaps the thought was that there would be more. Perhaps the ex thought there was more money than there was. And there may be an emotional component as well. What was Joseph's relationship with his ex?
i would have to think that Joseph's first son would inherit the lion share of what is there.
Again, this is a fictional type theory. But life being stranger than fiction, many times, perhaps a version of this is what happened.
The problem with missing persons investigations is that the "crime scenes" aren't treated as such, until it is too late
By all accounts, JM and the ex had a cordial relationship, and it was mentioned in the book that she would come to their home and frequently confide in JM. Also mentioned that JM was encouraged by the ex to maintain his relationship with his oldest son. Not saying your theory isn't possible, of course. Who knows what went on below the surface, or only they know about.
ReplyDeleteBut, your mentioning of an inheritance makes me wonder if the family will ever be declared "Missing and presumed dead". Because unless that happens, nobody would get anything that would be in the family's will (although we don't know if there was one)
What I'm wondering is if Rick ever learned anything about Summer's father? If you've read the book, you see that it was Joey searching for Summer's biological father that brought out her rage. Perhaps he was a dangerous man. That could explain why it set Summer off and perhaps why she's changed her name so many times (trying to hide from the man).
ReplyDeleteWas the youngest child born in the marriage or before?
ReplyDeleteSG I have no idea what really happened. And No Goodbyes does give some interesting info not presented before.
ReplyDeleteThe simple answer would be that the family left of their own accord. But if they didn't, and they were say, abducted, chances are slim, that three years later that they are still being held in captivity. If they didn't leave of their own accord, they are likely gone.
So if they aren't living a life incognito, and they did meet with foul play, someone had to have done something to them.
This next is gruesome and horrible to even mention, but to murder four people and dispose of the bodies is no small feat. And if such a crime took place, certainly there would be evidence. The easiest way to hide the evidence is in a home unlikely to be searched or in the wilderness.
IF, foul play is involved the family would have to have been killed someplace other than their home. And though Mexico is a possibility, it's more likely, if the entire family were harmed, that they were somewhere enclosed and State side.
No one has ever said where the family was thought to be going when they left their home that night. Perhaps they were going to the house of someone they knew---and this is where things turned ugly. There were the accusations of child abuse against the husband of Joseph's ex. That type of accusation, especially if true, could easily cause rage.
If the family was killed, it would seem that either it was a fluke, road rage, some crazy event--or, planned and orchestrated in a house. Otherwise how do you carry out the act?
I am still baffled why there aren't age-enhanced photos of the kids all over the place. If anyone were to have survived a horrific event like this, it would be the children.
Anonymous, I agree very much with everything you said.
DeleteMurdering 4 people did not happen in the McStay residence. Could it have happened someplace else? Sure. We just don't know enough, and there's no known evidence as to where that was. That's why I'm thinking it may not have happened. How many perfect muders are there? I'm just looking at the simplest explanation--no evidence of murder=no murder. Of course, like you said, there's the wilderness or an unsearched home that are possible places. We just don't know.
But I'm thinking, a fluke or road rage would not be this unsolvable. Because the perpetrators are reckless and it's in the heat of the moment, and hard to cover up. Unlike pre-meditation.
I think the lack of age-enhanced photos are because LE believes it to be a voluntary disappearance (not illegal). JMO
There were age enhanced pictures of the children on the family's three web sites.
DeleteCriminals make mistakes, especially if passion plays a part. Though the inheritance might have been a miscalculation on the part of the person doing the harm, money could be a motive here.
ReplyDeleteI've just caught onto this, but here's something interesting, if u go under his fb page joe mcstays, he's not friends with summer & there are no pictures of her on there...jw its kind of creepy
ReplyDeleteI never looked at JM's FB page until just now, and you're certainly right about that.
DeleteSummer seems to be a very "off the grid" type person. She gave birth at home, home schooled her kids, and worked from home. Also, she pretended she was younger than she was, that she was Italian, and changed her name/aliases often. If she were on FB, it would be much harder to conceal her true age/name/heredity. You might slip up, or someone could call you out on your lies.
To me, a person who does things like the above would not seem to even consider having an internet presence.
I'm thinking she must've told JM not to post pics of her, but it is rather glaring to post your own wedding pics online WITHOUT your spouse in any of them!
...BUT there are many YouTube videos of her posted by Joseph. OR ELSE that would make sense... The Youtube videos have always been odd to me as well. I mean, who the hell films drives to their new potential house? especially when your wife is bitter and arguing somewhat! Let alone, WHO POSTS them on Youtube??? Were they trying to show a friends or relative the properties? if so why not take them down?
DeleteI'm starting to think those personal Youtube videos were staged in some sort of fashion. Especially the one driving to the Fallbrook house, and also the one checking out the Temecula property.
SG, but if the disappearance is believed to be voluntary, why air it on every television outlet available? As long as you are going to do this much, why not present photos that will do some good?
ReplyDeleteAlso, perfect murders really may happen more than we would like to believe--there are plenty of disappearances that are highly suspicious, that never get solved.
Whole families disappearing is extremely rare, so the media grabbed hold of this story and ran with it. It a sad fact that certain crimes (or potential crimes) garner more coverage than others, for example, the story of a young, white female going missing will get national exposure, while a minority young woman's disappearance most likely will not.
ReplyDeleteThe "perfect" family disappearing under very mysterious circumstances is a headline grabber. This is why I think the story got so much exposure. And although the family is listed as "Voluntary Missing" now, in the beginning all anyone knew is the family hadn't been seen or heard from in over a week.
As to the lack of age-enhanced photos, I just don't know. Maybe LE doesn't do that when they decide the people left willingly. Why use the resources to find those who don't want to be found? Maybe LE actually does know the family is alive and well. They certainly wouldn't be obligated to explain to the public their findings.
I agree, perfect murders do happen often. IMO, based on the book and what I've read/seen on tv about this case, I don't think anyone was killed, but I do understand why people would think so. Given that the family has been gone so long and the lack of sightings (I don't give much weight to the eyewitness statements) those are compelling reasons to think of the disappearance as a possible homicide.
I agree with part of your assessment SG. LE either believes the family left voluntarily and has believed that for a long time or LE dropped the ball so badly in the beginning that now they literally have no clue and of course can't admit to it.They have been especially tight-lipped about this case for the past 2 years or so. I agree it does not seem likely a crime was committed at least in the US and if they made it to an acceptable destination off the grid it isn't likely anything happened since.True a road rage flukey thing is not out of the question it's just highly improbable and as you said by now there would be some clues; slip-up or jailhouse confession from someone. It just hasn't happened. Occam's razor for sure- the fewer assumptions we make the closer we will be to discovering what really happened.
ReplyDeleteSED,
ReplyDeleteI just keep coming back to the computer search for childrens passport requirements for travel in Mexico (8 days prior to disappearance) and potential purchase of Spanish language software (in December) oh, and the videotape. Very strong evidence, IMO, they planned to leave.
SG I think you are right. I am a fiction writer and so have a fiction writer's take. But I have also done a lot of research into cases of disappearances, combing just about every website, from Doe to NAMus.
ReplyDeleteAs unusual as it is for an entire family to be murdered, it's just as unusual, it seems, for an entire family to disappear without any one seeing them after.
There is the case of Madalyn O'Hair who, along with her adult son and daughter vanished. Everyone believed they had run of to New Zealand with millions in money donated to their cause--American Atheists. The case was finally solved and it turned out that an ex-employee of the the organization had arranged for their kidnapping and then stole from their bank accounts, etc..
With the McStays there doesn't seem to be this kind of money trail. So who knows...
Hopefully all is well with the McStays, and they are living off the grid for reasons that are unique to them.
But they are really doing an amazing job of staying under the radar, if that is the case.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteYes, I've watched a true crime program about the O'Hair family, very tragic. I thought for sure someone who disagreed with their religious stance did away with them, and the motive turned out to be purely monetary. Go figure.
Some people believe there to be a monetary motive (their large bank account and JM's business) and money trail (the subsequest pilfering of their bank account)for getting rid of the McStay's, but I'm not one of them.
Speaking of missing families, there's the Jamison family of Oklahoma who still aren't accounted for. Not to go too much OT, but, as someone whose done research on disappearances, do you have an opinion on that case?
That is an interesting case. I really thought that they met up with someone--perhaps a stranger, and either fought with them--resulting in a death, that then created a need for the killer to get rid of everyone; or someone created the scenario to get rid of them. It's really easy to dispose of a body/bodies in the wilderness. Especially if someone is familiar with the terrain. I'm pretty sure that if the authorities immediately treated the scene as one of a crime, that might have been solved.
ReplyDeleteThat is a major problem with missing persons cases--a lot of valuable info. vanishes by the time authorities decide the case is a crime.
Thanks for sharing your opinion. I also think that foul play was involved. There seems to be very little chance they are alive, unfortunately. They are probably right there on that mountain.
ReplyDeleteThe program I saw speculated that because of the remoteness of their last known location, it's unlikely they just came across some trouble there. More likely, like you said, that someone may have created a scenario to lure them there.
The video of them loading the car was a bit bizarre, with their mechanical movements, and not speaking, but that may not really mean anything.
People speculated they were somehow involved in drugs, but a thorough search of the home turned up not one speck of drugs or drug related evidence.
I also agree that LE should initially treat missing persons cases as potential crimes. They must just determine that on a case by case basis.
You are describing the missing Jamison family from OK, not the McStays.
DeleteNever Mind. I'm reading up the page, not down.
DeleteCan someone please help me clear up my confusion regarding the Mcstays. I think I have it right that Mike is older then joey!??? Did Patrick adopt one of the boys? if so, which one, and how did that all work? (marriages etc.) And how many times was Susan married (the mother), and how many times was Patrick married? and does patrick have any kids from prior marriages. Sorry for all the questions but I have looked and cant find answers for these. Thank you in advance
ReplyDeleteHi Anon,
ReplyDeleteNot a lot of info out there on your questions--but I'll try to answer: JM was adopted by Patrick & Susan, presumably at birth. They divorced when the boys were "very young" (from the book). I don't know for sure which brother is older, I think Mike? And I've never come across any info that would answer the other questions.
Thanku wendy, I hope this post gets shown as u hav said it will now. I want to give my opinion on this as a sufferer of bpd. I hope this gives people a new angle to look at. Firstly I want to get across that summers way of thinking is normal to her she is unaware that others don't think the same as her, she doesn't realise that her thoughts r oftern irrational. I think with rick releasing his book summers mind must hav gone in2 over drive recently if she's in hiding. As much as us bpd suffers want to cut ourselfs off from the world, we also over think situations, so we have to keep comunication to keep 1 step ahead of the world. I think in this blog we could have the thuth in a post posted by sm herself, she could have annonimously posted her own theorie, and 2 every1 it is just a theorie, but to sm its much more than that, its the thruth! And she would have posted it to see just how many people were close to the thruth and what evidence could back it up, if she nows this on Does Law Enforcement Always Tell The Truth?
ReplyDeleteJoseph is Susan's son with Mr. Ashley (not sure if they were married). I believe he is from Ohio but not sure on that. After Susan married Patrick they had Michael and PM adopted Joseph and raised him. So Joseph is not Patrick's biological son but Michael is.
ReplyDeleteSusan was married to Mr. A.
DeleteHi Wendy, will you please ask mr. baker if we get to hear the other team members theories like he posted two of them? Ask also if they are still working on the case? thankyou
ReplyDeleteMr. Baker will not be posting the other theories. He will address this when he returns in 2 weeks.
DeleteHello, Wendy - I, happily, have a copy of Mr. Baker's book. However, after having read through the entries here, specifically those on February 19, I don't think I have the latest version, which omits the porn references to Summer, along with other changes, 50 in all, I believe. In my book, those references and email are on pages 42-44. Has Mr. Baker posted the changes he made to the original version? I would like to see them. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNora
Hello Nora, Wendy here. When Mr. Baker returns I will ask him to post the list of the changes that were made in the revised version of the book. Please allow 2 weeks.
DeleteI don't think that the video crossing the border is of the McStays. If you are making a quick crossing of the border, where you are navigating the crossing with hundreds of others, you don't take your four year old's hand and walk. You carry the child. Four year olds are the slowest walkers ever.
ReplyDeleteIt's really possible that the McStays were killed near their home. Not in their home. But near.
Were the neighbors ever really checked out?
Fact is there were two children around the ages of the McStay children walking across that busy border.
DeleteI find the quote from Joseph himself to the domain company employee, Paul on pg 145 in the book very telling. "Fountains are my life, EIP feeds my family. I can't have EIP disappear off the face of the earth and end up back in a cubicle working for someone else. But, if I have to for me and my family to survive, I will."
ReplyDeleteJoseph was dealing with a woman who exhibited a lot of Borderline or Axis II traits: They lost their apartment(eviciton) in San Clemente due to messy apartment, the house in Fallbrook was messy, disorganized and dirty diapers,
Summer was deceitful and manipulative i.e. loan modification scam, lies about her identity, turning on her own family members and Joseph's extended family members and first born son, out of control shopping and spending of money for "things", entitled, selfish, dependent on others to survive, unrealistic, childish. Borderline people are very frustrating, draining, drama filled it is very hard to maintain relationships with them.
Joseph had to deal with this for years. Now CPS was involved and Joseph may have felt that he would also be alienated from his sons in the investigation.
Even if Joseph were to divorce Summer, he knew his sons would be subjected to her behaviors if she got joint custody, her lifestyle and choices in men. He had already dealt with that with his first wife and her choice of husband and how it had affected his first son.
Joseph may have felt trapped and miserable, yet his sons were his priority over anyone and anything, even Summer's life. Joseph could have done the searches on the computer, he could have hinted to his bestfriend, Mcgyver his feelings and he could have left all the money in the bank accounts to cover his mortgage and his clients and walk away from taking that money with him. This would also get Mike and Dan off his back. Joseph would be more likely to leave the dogs.
Joseph feeling sick may have been that he knew he had to do something to get away and he was planning his exit strategy.
I'm beginning to believe the theory of the "expert team", that Summer is the one that is gone for good. Joseph and the boys may still be out there somewhere in the world. Living or working with borderline people is very, very difficult, and I think his family knew this better than anyone. When you look at Joseph's You Tube videos, I noticed he would often say "me or I" statements when talking about the new house, I think there was already trouble in paradise back then. IMHO.
I agree with u 100%. I have a brother that is borderline. So much drama in his life.
DeleteExcellent post. Makes a lot of sense.
DeleteUsually in cases like this the answer isn't from an episode of Law & Order. Most people who are killed, usually, are killed in the heat of passion--but there is almost always a history of violence in these cases; or they are murdered in the course of a theft of some sort. There's nothing to indicate that anyone in that family had a tendency towards violence. Joseph could have gotten a divorce, he'd done so before.
DeleteI think it's very important to not bash those who may be nothing more than victims. The author of No Goodbyes did put forward some very interesting info., but no one knows what happened.
And there is almost a cruelty in casting doubt on the character of people who are not here to defend themselves.
A theory is a theory, Webster's dictionary, states that a theory is abstract thought. This is a blog to post theories based on Mr. Baker's book and information from it, whether you agree with Mr. Baker's book or not this is his blog. Nobody's bashing anybody and nobody is being cruel to anyone.
DeleteI'm gonna agree with the poster who said "There's nothing to indicate that anyone in that family had a tendency towards violence. Joseph could have gotten a divorce, he'd done so before"
DeleteIf SM was so difficult and irrational, JM might not have a difficult time getting custody of his boys. Wouldn't one try that tack before resorting to murder?
I just can't see either of them planning to kill the other. SM MAY HAVE BEEN bi-polar/borderline, but it's important to remember that we don't know that for sure. And, even if we did, does that mean she's more prone to violence? I don't think so, but I'm not a mental health professional.
SG
If the McStays didn't choose to leave, the most likely scenario is that they were harmed by strangers or an acquaintance who believed they had something to gain by their disappearance.
DeleteOne theory I haven't read or heard is the scenario where Summer and the kids are abducted earlier in the evening, or even in the late afternoon.
ReplyDeleteThe text messages that were sent from her phone, later to Joseph could have been sent by the abductors, making demands of Joseph. Joseph goes home, perhaps to check if the messages are a hoax, or to retrieve something that he needs in order fulfill the demands. Perhaps the abductors were familiar enough to him, that he believes he should try and handle the situation first on his own.
The call to his co-worker might have been in order to make some type of financial arrangement.
But when Joseph enters the place where Summer and the children are being kept, something goes terribly wrong.
The above scenario would explain why the house looked as if it had been abruptly left--even Summer's glasses having been left behind. It would explain the four day delay between the family disappearing and the car suddenly re-appearing. It would explain why neither the McStay car or their home appear to be a crime scene.
And why all communication just stops. There were those pings from the McStay cell phones in Bonsai, 76 miles from there home--perhaps that is where the abductors lived--or where they got rid of evidence.
Again, it's a crazy scenario, but no matter how you look at this, even if the McStays left voluntarily, the situation is bizare.
Ijust want to say something about Summers sunglasses being left being left behind. I believe they were left on purpose, to lead people down the path that they have gone, into thinking the McStays did not leave on their own accord. I think it was her sister (and since many others) that have said..she would'nt leave her glasses, she needs them to see. You have to remember, they were prescription sunglasses! She had regular prescription glasses to see with!!! A person does NOT NEED SUNGLASSES to see.
ReplyDeleteI just watched the "Disappeared" program on the family and had a question about JM's last phone call to CM.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the sheriff being interviewed: "That business partner had no indication that something was wrong." This is a very obscure statement. Doesn't really explain if he even spoke to him, does it? Yet I've read other places that they spoke, but maybe people just inferred that. The book says CM let the call go to voicemail.
Why are there conflicting reports as to whether JM actually actually spoke to CM, and is this significant?
Maybe CM was told by LE not to reveal the nature of their conversation.
Mr. Baker interviewed Mr. Merritt and in his taped interview. he told Mr. Baker that he did not answer the final call that evening. They spoke throughout the day on Feb. 4, 2010, but not in the evening when Mr. Merritt had arrived home. That is all I know, you will have to talk to Mr. Baker further.
DeleteThanks for responding, Wendy.
DeleteWhen I first heard about the case I focused on that detail, but couldn't find any information on who the person was, and what was said. Of course, the last phone call a missing family makes is highly significant, so I was trying to determine what happened.
I just can't stop wondering what JM wanted to say.
Why pose these questions? Well, there were NO searches and supposedly NO evidence of a crime. The few sightings which seem to have one distinctive pattern in common--disappearance--Erased home video surveillance camera footage, poor video at a border which prides itself in the highest HD cameras, non-existent fingerprints on a map, few if any LE comments to the public, disappearing/unexplainable funds in accounts, blogs where administrators claim to have nothing to do with posts disappearing, portions of a video on reporter's blog which silently went away, boards which must be closed to the public because issues are too sensitive, a CNN blog which suddenly went offline, and the unfathomable disappearance of all, video footage at one of our safest U.S. ports.
ReplyDeleteFamily member comments seem to echo a special need for privacy away from the prying eyes of the public. But, then I don't understand "the kidnapping scenario" unless it to throw off the public's speculation or why any of it would have needed to be made public from the start. Maybe the media started that downward spiral.
I agree with an above poster who states that people are most concerned with the children being safe. If in fact ALL family members and friends are totally alarmed, is it because of their privacy concerns, anger toward people's speculation, not knowing what happened to this family or a combination of all of these?
I feel the family members/friends have lost people they love and been without them at family celebrations for three whole years. Their normalcy disappeared with the family. And, I hope they do realize that the public has only one goal from my viewpoint--to find all four of them safe somewhere. Even though some comments on boards/blogs may have appeared callous over the years, I think many people are just so frustrated that a family could be missing for three years in our country and nothing can be done to find them or find that they are safe.
With all of the things that have seemingly disappeared with this family and case, some of us may even be questioning our own family's safety.
This was beautifully put. Send this to the family! Thank you for putting my/our thoughts into words.
DeleteThe questions I was posing in my own above post disappeared. lol
ReplyDeleteHere are those questions: Could some family members/friends trying to be discrete have something to do with one of the family members health? Could the family have gone somewhere for this reason? Had one of them needed help in the past for some reason? Did this individual feel a need to keep this private? Some people are gregarious, others not so much.
Did one of them need help again?
Thanks, Wendy. Can't wait until Rick returns and we can learn more about the document dump. It is so unfair that Rick tried to do his best to solve this crime and some people denigrate him for his efforts. Shame on them!
ReplyDeletePersonally I don't care whether Mr.Baker releases the documents or not. Wendy is right, he is not obligated to do anything more than he already has. For people posting as though they are somehow entitled to see a "document dump" is ridiculous. Maybe Rick should have held off on announcing that. The only thing that would be interesting about it is the players involved all contradicting each other and no doubt a lot of backbiting. You don't have to be Nostradamus to predict how this will play out.
ReplyDeleteSED,
DeleteI totally agree that RB isn't obligated to do anything further.
I really can't wait to see the documents, but I don't feel like RB owes it to us. How many authors offer, or are expected to do that?
And if it doesn't happen (which is what I was thinking) I may be disappointed, but I'd completely understand (lawyers & such).
I also agree with your last statement, still, it'll make good reading, I'm sure!
Really the only reason anyone should be interested in all this is if they care about the well being of the McStays.
ReplyDeleteThere is a poster with age-enhanced photos of the McStay children. That should be shown more places. Perhaps Baker could add these photos to his book.
ReplyDeleteAfter reviewing the timeline again, I have to wonder if Summer and the kids weren't abducted first, then Joseph was either convinced to follow or lured to someplace thinking he would see them.
ReplyDeleteThe texts Summer's phone sent to Joseph weren't necessarily written by her--or if they were, maybe she was forced to convince him to go to where the entire family met with some kind of fate.
It would explain the appearance of the house having been left suddenly. That there is no sign of violence in either their house or their car--and how an entire family could be ambushed. It would be easier to divide and abduct, than to take the family all at once.
It's all very conspiracy theory--and hopefully crazy and the McStays are on a hiatus of sorts. But if they were abducted, this would have been the cleanest manner to do it.
This is my latest theory-- I think Summer was in the WPP before she met JM and that is why she was so private (home births, home school). She was in hiding and she was looking into Mexico (passports and language) knowing that whoever she was hiding from was looking for her. Then on the 4th she found out they were very close to finding her and the whole family left quickly and unexpectedly. The McStay family (mom and MM) were told what was happening and where they were going and then MM filled in PM after some time. MM and mom have to pretend not to know because the family is in real danger and they don't want them found.
ReplyDeleteJust my thoughts.
Lauren
They are not in witness protection. The family is told to not draw attention to their missing family members when someone is placed in protection and let's face it- Witness protection is a fantasy in most districts.
DeleteI agree. It's very unlikely that they are in WWP. WWP is not all that common. It's an expensive program for the government. And there really is nothing to indicate that either Summer or Joseph were involved in any kind of activity that would lead to WWP any way.
DeleteThe problem with the theory that Summer was in the WPP is that her family is known to us. In cases of WPP, one big give away is that no immediate family, other than spouse and children, is known.
DeleteLauren I think you are on to something. That would make the most sense for all parties.
ReplyDeleteMr. Baker, I guess I'm squeaking in under the wire here, but, having followed this case and this blog for some time, I have the following thoughts for your and everyone else's input:
ReplyDelete1. Why is the fact that the house was put up for sale all but right after they bought it never talked about? They bought it in November 2009 for $330,000, and put it up for sale almost immediately thereafter for $289,000. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3473-Avocado-Vista-Ln-Fallbrook-CA-92028/16573114_zpid/ The for-sale sign is seen in your photo of the house right after they disappeared. To me, this would indicate some momentous happening in their lives at that time. But, maybe I'm missing something.
2. Has anyone heard about what happened to the painter who was supposed to originally be painting the interior, but just sort of disappeared, leaving McGyver to try to finish the job?
3. When LE entered the home, there were no clothes nor shoes to be found, except for two pairs of very high heels and fur coats. What happened to their clothes? Did they scoop everything up as they left, pile it into the Trooper, and take off to parts unknown until the car was found days later at the border, presumably with no clothes in it? Did the family remove the clothes?
I so want to think that they are all fine, living somewhere. But, I don't.
Helen
I agree. I think they met with foul play and I think it happened in the States. I wondered about that painter too--but there are also neighbors. Was there someone shady living near by? Because this case has never been given the examination given to a crime scene, there is a lot of evidence lost. Another question I had was why does Summer phoned Joseph from their land-line, yet a short time later there are texts between the two? Joseph is driving at this time--speaking on phone would be easier. I don't know if he had a hand-free device. But why change to texting?
DeleteHello Helen,
ReplyDeleteAnother poster also commented about the house being for sale right after purchase, and that was the first I ever heard of it. I don't know what to make of it either. If they did that before renovations were complete, they obviously weren't planning on staying in Fallbrook long-term. Would love to hear others thoughts.
As to the disappeared painter, I never thought it had much to do with the family's disappearance. JMO.
I also wondered about the clothes/shoes. It was said that their clothing was in disarray on the floor, but was that because they may have pulled them off the hangers in their haste to leave, or did they just live in that disorganized fashion?
The house being up for sale does add another piece to my theory that they left willingly.
When I followed the link that was to lead to the house being for sale, it took me to a sale that occurred in 2011--was the house on the market all that time? I thought I read somewhere that the bank foreclosed on the mortgage...
DeleteThe bank eventually did foreclose after their disappearance. You need to scroll down to "Price History" and click on "More." There you will see how many times the house was listed and unlisted. According to Rick's book, the McStays' idea was to remodel and sell again in a couple of years, which is pretty much a norm. Why would you launch into extensive renovations and then put the place up for sale, at a considerably lesser amount than you paid for it, as soon as you moved in? It doesn't make sense.
DeleteHelen
I could be wrong, but the way I read the sales history is that there may have been an issue with the bank or some kind of error. Because the price is identical to what the foreclosure price had been, before, I guess the McStays entered a little bit of a bidding war.
DeleteI don't think they were trying to sell the house. Both McStays had their real estate licenses--so who knows.
I can't help but wonder about the for-sale sign in front of the house right after they disappeared -
DeleteThe problem with a disappearance, as opposed to a death, is that unless the deceased gave someone power of attorney, technically no one is allowed to touch the assets of the deceased.
DeleteI am taking a guess that, as the McStays were missing mortgage payments, the bank began the process of foreclosure--or perhaps the family was attempting to salvage the investment the McStays had made in the property.
The disappearance of an entire family makes it very difficult for anyone, not granted legal permission, to handle the finance around, loans, etc.
Most murders are mundane, in that, there is no grand plot. This disappearance is odd, but most likely what happened isn't nearly as exciting as an episode of CSI. This could easily have been an altercation that once started, dominoes into the entire family losing their lives.
DeleteThe problem with a disappearance, as opposed to a death, is that unless the deceased gave someone power of attorney, technically no one is allowed to touch the assets of the deceased.
DeleteI am taking a guess that, as the McStays were missing mortgage payments, the bank began the process of foreclosure--or perhaps the family was attempting to salvage the investment the McStays had made in the property.
The disappearance of an entire family makes it very difficult for anyone, not granted legal permission, to handle the finance around, loans, etc.
If the McStays were killed, the killer would have to be:
ReplyDeleteSomeone who could get close enough to Summer & Joey to gain entry into their home; or someone the McStays would willing go to. As in they were lured somewhere, which is why the house doesn't show signs of any type of altercation.
They would have to be willing to harm an entire family, including two small children.
They would have to have been well organized or simply have access to a place where the bodies aren't likely to be found.
They would have to have some kind of motive for doing all this.
If this were an accident, and some altercation occurred, then motive is not as important. But if there is any type of pre-meditation involved, something triggered all this.
I realize I'm rehashing old info., already explored, but I think the focus should be on what would cause someone to go to these lengths?
And this person or persons, does not have to be all that close to the family. There could be someone who thought they would gain access to a small fortune, and were wrong.
It's possible there was mistaken identity. Who lived in the house prior to the Mc Stays living there?
I keep thinking of the O'Hairs, and how for years everyone thought they'd gone off with a small fortune, when a disgruntled former employee actually abducted and killed them.
I really think the most likely scenario is that someone thought there would be something to gain in an abduction--maybe no one was supposed to be hurt--and the McStays are not all that far from home.
I just read the book basically overnight in almost one sitting and here's
ReplyDeletewhat I think...that the family fled on getting some tip that feds were after
Summer for illegal mortgage scam and Joe for something covert going on under
cover of his business, possibly even the 2 operations linked in some form of
white collar criminal network. That they fled but couldn't show any evidence
of accessing bank accounts or credit cards so as not to be traced...so Mike
and Dan capitalized on this, making a deal with Joe to access the funds and
funnel them to him on the down low for giving them a cut of the action,
probably a big cut. And this may be still ongoing. And Mike is probably lining
Patrick's pockets with some of it to keep him quiet and playing the unknowing
semi-demented old dad and look the other way. The family is probably in Mexico
where Joe+Summer have formed some small hippie farmer business that is discreet
and/or even more scams under fake names and unknown IPOs. Mike + Dan might
also be in cahoots on that too. And lastly that law enforcement has painted this
public picture of declaring it homicide to cover the fact that they are really
investigating this financial crimes ring involving not only the McStays but
many characters, including family. They are giving the public impression of
treating it as an almost cold homicide case, while covertly following any and
all signs of this underground scam network hoping for an eventual massive
multi-party bust which perhaps might also involve some bigger corporate players.
I could of written this, as I have thought this is what could have happened. Everyone has their role. MM and MOM pretend they know nothing and are happy with what LE has done. Summers family role (they too know what happened) is to be to upset to go public and just hide in the background. Patrick (not sure if he knew right away) now knows where they are. His role is to get everyones focus on LE supposedly not doing their job, and RB screwing everything up, and basically come across like a victim. They all secretly wish everyone that follows this case would just go away.
DeleteWell you've got an interesting plot for a novel there, but this is rarely the way it ever works in real life. Most murders are simple in motive, perhaps complicated in execution and cover-up, but never involve so many players.
DeleteMore likely than not the McStays were killed by no more than two perps--who may have not intended to kill them at all.
As I reread the blog comments, I agree that potential authors could begin their manuscripts which might result in the next best seller.
DeleteI certainly hope that someone else writes a book about this mystery. The more books, the more publicity.
DeleteSo many more people know about this case because of your book. If some crime has been committed more people would be aware and watching others for a culprit's actions/slip-up. We can only keep hoping for their safe return.
DeleteRick,
ReplyDeleteI have just started to read your book. Is it possible that SM was poisoning JM with something like anti-freeze, drugs or something? What did happen about the big order that EIP got a few days before they disappeared? Is it possible that JM went off to fulfill it and was sick of MM scrounging for money all the time?
Doesn't seem likely, but this is a mystery and I guess anything is possible until we know what really happened.
DeleteWe need a public forum to discuss this case. Websleuths has the McStay information in a private place where the public can't see it. Justice Quest is completely dead since certain members were banned for using links to Rick's blog. The McStays and their friends, Jason Parmelee and Debbie Erp, interfere with the case. The public needs to hear the truth about the missing McStays.
ReplyDeleteWS put the thread in what they call the "Parking Lot" which means only members can see, read and post. They did this for liability sake so all you have to do is join WS and you can participate. It is easy and I recommend it. JQ? Not so much.
DeleteCan someone start a blog where anyone can post without comments needing to be approved?
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, the blog would have to be monitored in some way. I have seen blogs where spammers drop link after link with worthless content. I question whether we would want harassing or inappropriate comments lingering for others to see. I have read some inflammatory comments that I would just as soon not have wasted my time reading, too. However, I agree that one would be helpful.
DeleteAny blog or board about this case needs to be monitored 24/7. There are just some people who have no conscience and don't care what they post, even when asked nicely to refrain. I guess it is a full-time job for the mods at WS just to police their threads.
DeleteRick what do you make of the fact that the FBI has now taken over the case as of today?
Deletehttp://www.mcstayfamily.org/fbi-takes-the-lead
Let's wait for the press release before we believe much that comes from that website. But, if true, very interesting!
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's for real.
Deletehttp://www.myvalleynews.com/story/70430/
Tuesday, April 9th, 2013
Issue 15, Volume 17.
The following is a statement issued by the San Diego Sheriff's Department, Homicide Unit, today, April 9, 2013.
SAN DIEGO - "The case of the missing McStay family from Fallbrook has been investigated by the San Diego County Sheriff's Department since they were reported missing in February 2010.
Over the last three years, the Sheriff's Department has conducted an exhaustive missing person investigation in an attempt to locate the family. Hundreds of tips have been investigated without success. Since the case was initiated, we have worked closely with the San Diego Division of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), as well as other law enforcement agencies. The consensus is the family, in all likelihood, traveled into Mexico of their own free will. There has been no contact or communication Advertisement
[ Pala Mesa Resort ] from them since February of 2010.
Due to the fact that the family is believed to be out of the country, and because minor children are involved, the primary investigative responsibility for the case is being transferred to the FBI. The FBI is the most appropriate law enforcement agency to continue the investigation since they have significant experience and investigative assets in foreign countries. The Sheriff's Department will continue participating in the investigation in a supporting role.
Anyone with information about this incident is asked to call Crime Stoppers at (888) 580-8477. You can remain anonymous and be eligible for up to a $1,000 reward for information leading to the resolution of the case."
This statement was released by Lt. Glenn Giannantonio, San Diego Sheriff's Homicide Detail (858) 974-2321.
Rick,why do none of my posts in defense of JP and DE get approved? I thought as a journalist you'd be fair and allow both sides equal time....
ReplyDeleteOk, you are right about fairness, so I have established a new policy here. If you want to bash someone by name, you must post with your given name. It is not fair to the bashed to not know who is attacking them. I will be forced to delete any post that does not conform.
DeleteI have to agree with that. If any bashing or accusations are to be made, the person who is on the receiving end has a right to know their accuser and perhaps defend themselves. Even if they are missing.
DeleteI also have been reading and following this family's story from the beginning, I find it very perplexing as well. I really hope they are all together alive and well somewhere.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I wonder if the McStay's really officially "bought" or owned their new house. I looked up the sales history of the house on Redfin and Zillow and I found something very interesting on the sales history of the house.
On Zillow.com, it shows the house was sold on Nov. 17, 2009 for $330K (the McStay's purchase?) and then in the SAME month on Nov. 25, 2009, it was listed FOR SALE AGAIN for $289K.
It was still for sale in Dec 2009 before they disappeared and most interesting, is that it was taken OFF and then back ON the market on Feb 26, 2010, a couple of weeks after the family disappeared.
It continued to go up for sale and taken off again March 2010 and June 2010, finally being foreclosed in July 2011.
If this has already been discussed, I apologize, maybe you can update me.....but if not, am I the only one who finds it bizarre that their house went up for sale again the same month that they moved in? And was on and off the market up until they disappeared? Here's the link:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3473-Avocado-Vista-Ln-Fallbrook-CA-92028/16573114_zpid/
Anybody know the current whereabouts of Dan Kavanaugh?
ReplyDeleteThis is a reply to Anonymous on April 13 at 12:13 A.M. regarding the sale history of the McStays' home. I had posted that very same question earlier on March 30 at 6:54 PM. There are several replies, one which offers the theory of a "bidding war," which I don't quite understand. It appears to me, as it does to you, that they put that house up for sale almost as soon as they moved in. But, again, maybe we're missing something.
ReplyDeleteHelen
Helen, it does appear the McStays put their home back on the market 8 days after purchasing it. Then a lot of activity thereafter, too.
DeleteRick, do you have any information about this?
Real Estate listings on the internet are notoriously wrong. I know. I buy and sell. So the fact that online a home is listed as being for sale, doesn't mean it is or was. I looked at that history, and though I can't say for certain--the listing price after the McStays first bought, would indicate that a mistake was made. The Foreclosure prices was something like 298k the McStays bought for 330 (which indicates that there was a bidding war) as in, the price bought at was higher than that listed. No one offers more for a house than listing price, unless there are other offers being made.
DeleteThe fact that just after they bought the house the internet shows that it again was listed, doesn't mean anything--this happens all the time. I've looked at houses often, that had already been sold, but the internet presented them as still on the market. And the numbers match too perfectly. If the McStays paid 330k and there had been other offers, why not start your listing price there? Or higher. And the sale price was exactly the same as it had been when the bank listed.
No one close to the case has EVER said that the McStays were about to sell their house.
The later sales activity occurs after their disappearance--and this was no doubt due to a lapse in their mortgage payments being made.
Thanks for the replies..I found and read the entries from March 30th.....but I wouldn't totally dismiss the sales history on Zillow.com. I have bought and sold 2 homes in the past 5 years and Zillow.com is totally accurate for my sales history, as well as some of my relatives homes I have looked up on Zillow.
DeleteWho listed the house for sale 22 days after they disappeared?? Coincidence or bad info on Zillow.com? Hard to believe.
Supposedly Summer was getting back into real estate and had her RE license, maybe she was behind all the on/off the market activity, also supporting some people's theory that they never intended to live in the house long, for whatever reason, but ended up leaving much sooner than they planned.
Summer was never happy about this home and its location. Maybe Summer listed the house for less than purchase price in an effort to get rid of it. It makes perfect sense. The home was listed through a qualified real estate company, San Diego Realty, Inc. I don't believe Zillow would "create" a listing that didn't exist. From Mr. Baker's book we know Summer and Joey had a troubled relationship. Perhaps this issue was a part of it.
Deleteisint that realty company owned by their friends, and they use to workf for and summer was going to work their again? something if you read between the lines
ReplyDeleteAccording to Summer's friend, Diane Cirignani, Summer formerly worked for her company, Vernazza Realty, in Ranch Santa Margarita.
Deletehttp://www.ocregister.com/articles/cirignani-235298-joseph-mcstay.html
The four days (Thursday evening to Monday evening) when not only the McStays were missing, but there vehicle was as well, is the most mystifying piece to this case--no matter what the theory around their disappearance is.
ReplyDeleteIf they left of their own accord, and that is them on tape crossing the border, where were they for four days? How is it that no one saw them?
If they were abducted or harmed, why did the perpetrator wait four days to place their car near the border. Was time being bought? As in, whoever did this knew that the real investigation into the McStays would only happen once their abandoned Trooper was found?
I just don't get how, if they were alive between Feb 4 and Feb 8, no one saw them.
Tell me this cannot be accurate? it is to obvious! Homeschooling in new mexico is one of the easiest states to register for.
ReplyDeletewww.mylife.com/c-75676047
Places Lived
Haleiwa, HI
McMinnville, OR
About Kenneth Aranda
Kenneth Andrews Aranda was born in 1978. Kenneth currently lives in Haleiwa, Hawaii. Before that, Kenneth lived in Haleiwa, HI in 2012. Before that, Kenneth lived in McMinnville, OR in 2009.
Kenneth Andrews Aranda is related to Blanche Aranda, Kenneth Andrews Aranda is also related to Summer Aranda, who is 46 years old and lives in Albuquerque, NM.
Summer Aranda, 46
Albuquerque, NM
URL
www.mylife.com/summeraran93222su
Gender
Female
Places Lived
Laguna Hills, CA,
About Summer Aranda
Summer Aranda was born in 1966. Summer currently lives in Albuquerque, New Mexico
Rick,can you repost the summer aranda post up under the astrology thread, as the conversation seems to be going on there. I would like to see what people have to say about this. Thanks in advance
ReplyDeleteI don't know why anyone is interested in crazy random name matches. The answer to this mystery is in the 4 days from the point at which the McStays footprint vanishes, to the time their Trooper is found. Reveal that mystery, this entire mystery will be solved.
ReplyDelete